1. Seasonal patterns: The dislocation of historical data and current variables

The seasonal characteristics of Bitcoin over the past 10 years show that the fourth quarter often presents a 'tail-end' trend: According to CoinGecko data, the average increase in Q4 from 2015 to 2024 reached 38%, with 2017 (close to the peak of the bull market), 2020 (liquidity easing after halving), and 2023 (approval of spot ETFs) all recording quarterly increases of over 50%, forming a market consensus of 'Q4 peak season.'


However, the seasonal background for 2025 has shown significant changes:

  • At the macro level, the Federal Reserve's June 2025 interest rate meeting clearly stated 'only a 50BP rate cut within the year,' far below the market's expectation of 100BP at the beginning of the year. The tightening of USD liquidity suppresses the valuation of risk assets, while the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index remains at 0.65 (CoinMetrics data), weakening the liquidity-driven seasonal market foundation.

  • At the market structure level, the net inflow of spot ETF funds in the first half of 2025 was only 12 billion USD, a decrease of 65% compared to 35 billion USD in the same period of 2024. The enthusiasm for institutional allocation has cooled, and the traditional Q4 'end-of-year repositioning by institutions' logic lacks momentum.

2. The core support of the bearish trend: the resonance of technical and fundamental aspects.

The current bearish trend of Bitcoin is driven not by a single factor, but by a combination of technical and fundamental aspects:


  • From a technical perspective, Bitcoin fell from a high of 102,000 USD in July 2025, breaking the key support level of 85,000 USD in August (the upward trend line after the 2024 halving). As of early September, it fluctuated in the range of 78,000-82,000 USD, with the MACD indicator continuously diverging and the RSI dropping below 40, showing 'weak consolidation' characteristics.

  • From a fundamental perspective, miner selling pressure has intensified. According to Glassnode data, in August 2025, the net monthly selling volume of miners reached 12,000 coins, the highest since November 2022. Some small and medium-sized mining companies have been forced to liquidate due to rising electricity prices (global energy prices increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3) and competition in computing power (the total network computing power broke 800 EH/s).

  • Regulatory risks are rising. After the implementation of the EU's (Crypto Asset Market Regulation Act) (MiCA) in June 2025, 12 crypto exchanges have exited the European market due to high compliance costs. The SEC in the United States has tightened its scrutiny of stablecoin issuers, and market risk appetite is suppressed.

3. A reverse review of the bullish catalysts in 2025: the gap between expectations and reality.

The market generally considers three major factors as the 'engines' for Bitcoin's breakthrough in 2025, but a deeper analysis reveals their limitations:


  1. The overdraft effect of halving: After the third halving of Bitcoin in April 2024, the market has priced in the 'supply contraction' logic in advance, with a 120% increase from Q2 to Q3 2024. Historical patterns show that the peak price after halving usually occurs 12-18 months post-halving (14 months after the 2016 halving and 16 months after the 2020 halving). By the end of 2025, it will be 18 months since the 2024 halving; the effect may be entering its final stage rather than a strengthening period.

  2. The bottleneck of institutional adoption: The expected 'spot ETF scale surpassing 100 billion USD' has not yet been achieved (current total scale is about 68 billion USD), and traditional financial institutions face internal risk control constraints. A report by JPMorgan in Q2 2025 shows that only 3.2% of its private banking clients are allocated to crypto assets, far below the average allocation ratio for alternative assets (15%). Compliance concerns and volatility fears remain major obstacles.

  3. The virtual fire of blockchain applications: The expansion of the Layer2 ecosystem is seen as key to demand growth, but actual data shows that the total locked value (TVL) of Ethereum Layer2 in Q2 2025 decreased by 18% quarter-on-quarter, with most DApps having daily active users below 100,000. The logic of 'practical value driving prices' has yet to form substantial support.


In summary, for Bitcoin to break through 150,000 USD before the end of 2025, it needs to overcome the following challenges: the seasonal patterns breaking down under tightening liquidity, the dual pressures of technical aspects and miner selling pressure, as well as the expectation gap of bullish catalysts. Achieving this goal requires not only macro environments to exceed expectations of easing (such as an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve) and a drastic drop in regulatory risks—'black swan' events—but also a fundamental shift in market funding structure—from the current 'retail-led volatility' back to 'institutional incremental dominance in trends'. Under the existing variables, the probability of this breakthrough still needs to be assessed cautiously.



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