The supply of Ethereum stablecoins has surpassed $150 billion, reaching a historic high, driven not by a single currency but by the collaborative growth of multiple currencies. According to the latest data from Glassnode, as of now, USDC (USD Coin) dominates with a scale of approximately $78 billion, accounting for over 52%; USDT (Tether) follows closely behind at around $55 billion, making up 36.7%; additionally, DAI (decentralized stablecoin) ranks third with a scale of about $7.5 billion, accounting for 5%, while others like TUSD, USDP, and others collectively contribute the remaining share.
Behind this data lies a reflection of key changes in the Ethereum network ecosystem: on one hand, the continuous expansion of compliant stablecoins (like USDC) reflects the increasing recognition of Ethereum's infrastructure by traditional financial institutions — recently, several regional banks in the U.S. announced they would include USDC in their clients' asset management options, further promoting the inflow of compliant funds; on the other hand, the steady growth of the decentralized stablecoin DAI highlights the resilience of Ethereum's DeFi (decentralized finance) ecosystem, which is becoming an important bridge connecting crypto-native assets with real-world value through the model of generating stablecoins by collateralizing assets like ETH.
For the Ethereum network, the $150 billion stablecoin not only serves as "confidence backing" but also as the core support for ecological vitality. As a "trading medium" and "value storage tool" in the crypto market, the growth in stablecoin scale directly drives the increase in on-chain transaction volume and the total locked value (TVL) in DeFi on Ethereum. Data shows that with the stablecoin scale exceeding $150 billion, the average daily on-chain transaction volume on Ethereum has increased by 18% compared to last month, and the total locked value in DeFi has rebounded to $82 billion, a 35% increase from the beginning of the year, forming a positive cycle of "stablecoin expansion — ecological vitality enhancement — network value increase".
2. The "optimism and bottleneck" of price trends: Market games below the support level of $43,000.
From the daily chart, the current price structure of ETH does indeed show an optimistic trend — in the past week, ETH has consistently fluctuated above the key demand area of $43,000, quickly rebounding after touching a low of $43,200, and as of the time of writing, it is maintaining around $45,500, up about 5.3% from a week ago. The stability of this support level comes from the "bottoming out" effect of two aspects of capital: first, the reluctance to sell from long-term holding institutions; CryptoQuant data shows that the proportion of ETH held by "HODLers" (those holding for over a year) currently stands at 68%, reaching a new high since the 2021 bull market. This low selling pressure from such capital provides basic support for the price; second, the demand for buying on dips in the spot market. In the past 7 days, the ratio of "buy order volume / sell order volume" on ETH spot exchanges has remained above 1.2, indicating a high recognition of the $43,000 range by retail and small to medium investors.
However, the market is also facing a bottleneck of "lack of explosive bullish driving force". From a technical perspective, the current RSI (Relative Strength Index) of ETH remains around 58, in the "neutral to strong" range, and has not entered an oversold state, indicating a lack of strong rebound momentum in the short term; from a funding perspective, the "long-short ratio" in the ETH futures market has stabilized at 1.15 in the past week, showing no significant signs of bullish accumulation, indicating that institutional capital is still in a "wait-and-see trial" phase, without large-scale entry to drive price breakthroughs.
The essence of this "bottleneck" is the market's waiting for the "subsequent positive news to materialize" — the current active developments on-chain (such as stablecoin expansion, validator growth) have not yet fully translated into price momentum, requiring clearer catalysts to break the balance. The "capital reservoir" brought by the $150 billion stablecoin scale is one of the potential catalysts: once these stablecoin funds begin to flow into the ETH spot or derivatives market, they will provide key momentum for price breakthroughs.
3. The "formation signal" of institutional confidence: validators, open interest, and entry expectations.
The market's expectation that "institutional entry will open a new round of bull market" is not baseless, but based on multiple collaborative signals from on-chain and market indicators:
Firstly, the decentralization and security enhancement of the validator network. According to Token Terminal data, as of now, the number of Ethereum validators has reached 1.102 million, an increase of 4.8% from last month, and the geographical distribution has further diversified — the proportion of validators in North America has decreased from 42% at the beginning of the year to 38%, while the proportions in Europe and Asia have increased to 29% and 25%, respectively, with the remaining regions accounting for 8%. The growth in the number and diversification of validators means that the security and censorship resistance of the Ethereum network have significantly improved, which is an important "safety backing" for institutional investors who focus on risk control. Currently, several traditional asset management institutions (such as Fidelity, BlackRock) have mentioned in public reports that the maturity of the Ethereum validator network is one of the key factors they consider when allocating ETH assets.
Secondly, the continuous rise of open interest. Open interest reflects the total amount of futures contracts in the market that have not been closed, serving as an important indicator of institutional capital activity. According to Coinglass data, as of the time of writing, the total open interest in the ETH futures market has reached $18.5 billion, increasing by 22% from last month, a new high since June 2022. In terms of contract types, perpetual contracts account for about 62%, while quarterly contracts account for 38%, and the "premium rate" (compared to spot prices) for quarterly contracts remains around 0.8%, indicating market optimism about long-term prices. It is worth noting that the recent growth in open interest primarily comes from compliant exchanges (such as Coinbase, Kraken), rather than traditional crypto exchanges, further confirming the trend of institutional capital entering the market — the KYC (Know Your Customer) processes at compliant exchanges are stricter and more aligned with institutional investors' risk control requirements.
In addition, the "role switching" between retail and institutional investors is becoming a market focus. Currently, the price trend of ETH is still dominated by retail trading — CryptoQuant data shows that in the past 24 hours, retail orders with a single transaction amount below $1,000 accounted for 58%, while institutional orders with a single transaction amount above $100,000 accounted for only 15%. However, as the scale of stablecoins exceeds $150 billion and the validator network matures, the entry conditions for institutional investors are gradually becoming mature. Several crypto asset management institutions (such as Grayscale, Galaxy Digital) have pointed out in recent strategy reports that if the ETH price can stabilize above $48,000, it will trigger the "automatic accumulation mechanism" of institutions, at which point institutional order proportion may increase to over 30%, pushing the price to challenge the key resistance level of $5,000.
4. The "rebound hint" of on-chain indicators: supply dynamics, deposit users, and the $5,000 resistance level.
From the on-chain supply and demand dynamics, multiple indicators have released positive signals of "price rebound":
Firstly, the "surge" in the exchange reserves and supply ratio. Analysis by AMBCrypto based on CryptoQuant data shows that in the past 24 hours, the "reserve amount / total supply amount" ratio of ETH exchange reserve wallets has surged from 0.085 to 0.102. This change may seem small, but it is significant — the relative growth of exchange reserves does not indicate "increased selling pressure", but reflects investors' "preparatory actions" of transferring ETH from personal wallets to exchanges. Combined with the current situation of "buy orders dominating" in the spot market, this portion of ETH flowing into exchanges is more likely to be used for "buying on dips" rather than "selling for cashing out". At the same time, the stability of the reserve ratio (with no significant fluctuations) also confirms the consistency of ETH supply, avoiding price fluctuations caused by "large unlock selling pressure", which is an important foundation for maintaining price stability and attracting long-term capital for ETH, the "second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization".
Secondly, the "turnaround and growth" of the number of independent deposit users. The "independent deposit users" on the Ethereum network refer to the number of independent addresses that deposit ETH into the Ethereum network through wallets to participate in staking (becoming validators). This metric directly reflects the market's recognition of ETH's long-term value — staking ETH requires locking funds (the current lock-up period is 27 hours for unlocking + 16 days for exit), and must meet the minimum staking threshold of 32 ETH. Therefore, the growth in the number of independent deposit users means that more investors are willing to hold for the long term and "deeply participate" in the Ethereum network. Data shows that in the past week, the number of ETH independent deposit users increased from 1.98 million to 2.02 million, achieving a "turnaround from negative to positive" (previously there was a brief decline due to market fluctuations), and maintaining a daily average growth rate of 12,000. As of the time of writing, the total amount of ETH staked has reached 28.5 million ETH, accounting for 23.8% of the total ETH supply, and the increase in the staking rate further reduces market circulation, providing "supply-side support" for price rises.
Thirdly, the "historical significance and breakthrough conditions" of the $5,000 resistance level. $5,000 is not only the historical highest price of ETH (set in November 2021) but also a "key threshold" on the psychological level of the market — breaking this price level means that ETH will break the "historical high pressure" and enter a new price range, potentially triggering a large number of "chasing orders" and initiating a new bull market; if it fails to break through, it may fall into the "$45,000 - $5,000" oscillation range. From the current market conditions, breaking through $5,000 requires meeting two core conditions: first, the "effective conversion" of on-chain funds — if 5% (about $7.5 billion) of the $150 billion stablecoins flow into the ETH spot market, based on the current price, it could buy about 165,000 ETH, accounting for 0.13% of the current circulation, which is enough to push the price through the resistance level; second, the "concentration of institutional capital entry" — as mentioned earlier, if the proportion of institutional orders increases to over 30%, it will provide continuous momentum for the price and avoid a "rapid drop" after breaking through.
5. Summary: The price outlook for ETH under $150 billion stablecoins.
The breakthrough of $150 billion in stablecoins is not just a simple "scale number", but a "comprehensive signal" indicating network ecosystem maturity, increased capital confidence, and readiness for institutional entry. In the short term, the ETH price will still oscillate in the $43,000 - $48,000 range, waiting for institutional capital to enter or for stablecoin funds to convert into "catalysts"; in the medium to long term, if the key resistance level of $5,000 is broken, and the validator network and DeFi ecosystem continue to expand, ETH is expected to enter a new round of upward cycles, potentially challenging higher price ranges.
However, investors also need to pay attention to risks: on one hand, if changes in the macroeconomic environment (such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes exceeding expectations) lead to a broad decline in risk assets, ETH may face short-term pullback pressure; on the other hand, the "potential risks" in the stablecoin market (such as changes in compliance policies, algorithmic stablecoin fluctuations) may also indirectly affect the Ethereum ecosystem. Therefore, while paying attention to on-chain indicators and institutional movements, it is crucial to develop investment strategies that consider the macroeconomic environment to respond to market volatility.
