$ETH ETH Contract Detailed Analysis and Strategy Changes: Currently, the market looks to entice buyers. As long as Ethereum does not break through 4360, we remain firmly bearish. The key point for Bitcoin does not have a clear position for now.
Strategy Changes: We have decided to place the stop loss above 4360 at a certain position. Additionally, we will conduct a replenishment operation near 4330. The regular position is a 20x leverage with a 10% position size, and the replenishment position will also be 10% (equivalent to the overall position being consistent with Bitcoin's position). If our stop loss is hit, this loss will be equivalent to nearly 7% of the overall position loss.
Analysis:
Current Long and Short Entry Rate: We initially calculate the current long and short entry rate of Ethereum to be approximately 1.7:1 (this is only a rough estimate for simple reference).
Average Holding Duration for Long and Short Positions: The average holding duration for longs is significantly greater than that of shorts, meaning that most shorts are primarily short-term and are not very willing to hold long-term at the current position. Because Ethereum is currently at the lower edge of a range, the bulls see nearly 200 points of potential upward movement, which likely leads to a greater overall expectation of returns.
Current Position Distribution: Currently, the market has a dense area of long positions trapped at 4400 and 4330, with a lower dense entry area for long positions around 4280 (which has already been released). The dense area for short positions is around 4300, and combined with the high average holding duration of bulls, the current market may clean up small-level high-leverage shorts, giving temporary profit space to the bulls. Therefore, we will place our stop loss at the key level above 4360 to create a slightly larger level.
Volume Analysis: Ethereum has oscillated many times within the 4250-4500 range. A relatively important data support for the bearish outlook at this lower range is that the volume of this decline far exceeds that of previous instances. Both a long and a short position must be traded to form volume, indicating a significant presence of both long and short positions, with the shorts being relatively strong, thus leading to the current market situation. An increase in volume suggests that the number of trapped bulls this time is also greater than in previous instances (we analyze that a major factor may be the positive non-farm payroll data leading to a substantial increase in long entry rates).
Analysis is analysis, and we can only make predictions based on the most likely direction we can observe. The maximum loss is 7% of the total capital loss, while the expected return is between 15%-25%, still meeting the risk-reward ratio standards. Do not over-leverage; anything is possible in the market, and no one's analysis is guaranteed to be correct.
Strategy Changes: We have decided to place the stop loss above 4360 at a certain position. Additionally, we will conduct a replenishment operation near 4330. The regular position is a 20x leverage with a 10% position size, and the replenishment position will also be 10% (equivalent to the overall position being consistent with Bitcoin's position). If our stop loss is hit, this loss will be equivalent to nearly 7% of the overall position loss.
Analysis:
Current Long and Short Entry Rate: We initially calculate the current long and short entry rate of Ethereum to be approximately 1.7:1 (this is only a rough estimate for simple reference).
Average Holding Duration for Long and Short Positions: The average holding duration for longs is significantly greater than that of shorts, meaning that most shorts are primarily short-term and are not very willing to hold long-term at the current position. Because Ethereum is currently at the lower edge of a range, the bulls see nearly 200 points of potential upward movement, which likely leads to a greater overall expectation of returns.
Current Position Distribution: Currently, the market has a dense area of long positions trapped at 4400 and 4330, with a lower dense entry area for long positions around 4280 (which has already been released). The dense area for short positions is around 4300, and combined with the high average holding duration of bulls, the current market may clean up small-level high-leverage shorts, giving temporary profit space to the bulls. Therefore, we will place our stop loss at the key level above 4360 to create a slightly larger level.
Volume Analysis: Ethereum has oscillated many times within the 4250-4500 range. A relatively important data support for the bearish outlook at this lower range is that the volume of this decline far exceeds that of previous instances. Both a long and a short position must be traded to form volume, indicating a significant presence of both long and short positions, with the shorts being relatively strong, thus leading to the current market situation. An increase in volume suggests that the number of trapped bulls this time is also greater than in previous instances (we analyze that a major factor may be the positive non-farm payroll data leading to a substantial increase in long entry rates).
Analysis is analysis, and we can only make predictions based on the most likely direction we can observe. The maximum loss is 7% of the total capital loss, while the expected return is between 15%-25%, still meeting the risk-reward ratio standards. Do not over-leverage; anything is possible in the market, and no one's analysis is guaranteed to be correct.
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