$BTC

Do not chase the candle if 114k has not been completely broken. Breaking 110k means the short-term story is over.

The price is recovering to the 113k range in mid-September during a “bad weather”.

US ETF just withdrew a net ~160 million USD on 5/9, proving that smart money is still cautious.

Whale ≥100 BTC at historical peaks, but just one sell-off can easily trap retail investors.

• Key levels: 110k–111k / 113.5–115k. Break & close >114k → 118–120k. Close <110k → test 105k (Source: CoinDesk/MarketWatch, 2025).

• ETF flow: IBIT −63.2 million, BITB −49.6 million, GBTC −47.3 million on 5/9 (Source: Farside Investors, 2025).

• On-chain: addresses ≥100 BTC reaching peaks — bullish but not immune to volatility (Source: Glassnode, 2025).

• Seasonality: September has negative statistics, prioritizing profit-taking over FOMO (Source: CoinDesk, 2025).

Currently: only act when there is a daily close >114k. Invalid if <110k.

Next: watch ETF flows daily and Fed announcements. Range/trigger: 110k–114k.

Do you enter early or wait for confirmation?

#btc #orderflow #macro #etf