BREAKING: BULL RUN WILL END IN 50 DAYS!
Cycle Peak Countdown indicator says $BTC is 95% done
I researched all the data and found smth interesting
Here is what will happen and why we will dump hard soon
ā« Before we get started
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ā« Market cycles are simple but brutal
ā Bitcoin rises in four acts
- Accumulation
- Rally
- Euphoric blow-off
- Crash
ā Weāre deep in act three ā profit is everywhere, sentiment is high, and history says the finale comes fast
ā Let me explain moreš
ā« On-chain confirms it
ā Nearly 90% of supply is in profit, MVRV and NUPL are stretched
ā That kind of across-the-board profitability only happens near cycle tops
ā Itās the moment when holders turn into sellers, setting the stage for reversals
ā« Spot ETFs hold ~$142B AUM, flows flipped positive again in September after summer outflows
ā Yet inflows are modest, not euphoric
ā Thatās late-stage behavior ā cautious buying into what could be the final leg
ā« Seasonality strengthens the case
ā Sep 2025 was flat at +2.3%, keeping the weak late-summer pattern
ā But Q4 flips the script:
+10.8% Oct 2024
+37.3% Nov 2024
+25.5% Oct 2023
+42.9% Nov 2020
ā Oct ā Nov has always delivered the parabolic moves that close bull cycles
ā« Price action already mimics past cycles
ā Augustās $124K ATH followed by a dip to ~$110K mirrors 2017 and 2021 late-summer pullbacks
ā Those dips were the pause before the blow-off
ā Key supports are $97ā101K ā lose them and the script breaks
ā« Miners are still in the green
ā Their average break-even cost sits near $95K, while BTC trades above $111K
ā That margin keeps rigs running and removes forced selling pressure
ā As long as miners stay profitable, supply stress isnāt the trigger for a top just yet
ā« Now the timing math
ā We are 1,020 days past the Nov 2022 bottom, and past cycles topped after 1,060ā1,100 days
ā That puts the peak in late Octāmid Nov 2025 ā roughly 50 days away
ā This isnāt guesswork: itās the same rhythm that marked 2017 and 2021 blow-offs
ā« Halving confirms the timing
ā April 2024 cut block rewards in half, reducing new supply dramatically
ā Historically, cycle peaks follow 520ā580 days later ā and right now weāre 510 days in
ā That means we are entering zone where every past blow-off top has taken place
ā« What happens after the peak?
ā Each cycle has ended with a 70ā80% drawdown stretched over 370ā410 days
ā If BTC tops near $120K, the script points to ~$30K lows by late 2026
ā The bear always arrives slower than expected, but it never fails to come
ā« Altcoins always follow last
ā Bitcoin peaks first, then liquidity rotates as traders chase one final run in alts
ā That phase is fast and euphoric, but collapses hit harder than BTC
ā Both 2018 and 2021 proved the script ā nothing suggests 2025 will be different
ā« All roads converge:
- On-chain greed
- Cautions ETF flows
- Explosive Q4 seasonality
- Cycle math
ā ~50 days remain for the blow-off top before winter sets in
ā Discipline now decides who keeps profits and who rides them back down
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