Many people are focused on the dollar price of Bitcoin shouting 'it has risen too much', but few pay attention to a hidden signal: if we use 'gold' as a measure (that is, priced in gold standard), Bitcoin has hardly risen since the cycle low in November 2022! This means - the current bull market in the core logic of 'digital gold replacement' has actually not yet started, and by 2033, if Bitcoin's market value surpasses gold, we still have 8 years for a 10 times opportunity in our hands!
First, understand: what is 'gold standard Bitcoin'? One sentence to understand it immediately.
Simply put, it measures the value of Bitcoin by how many grams of gold can be exchanged for 1 Bitcoin, rather than looking at how many dollars it can be exchanged for.
For example, in November 2022, 1 Bitcoin could be exchanged for about 1200 grams of gold; now (in 2025), 1 Bitcoin can still only be exchanged for about 1200 grams of gold - even though the dollar price of Bitcoin has risen from 15,000 to 60,000 over the past two years, when exchanged for gold, it hasn’t increased at all!
It's like: the money you have has increased in dollar value, but when exchanged for grain (hard currency) it hasn't increased, indicating that the 'real value' hasn't changed. One of Bitcoin's 'real value anchors' is gold, so if the gold standard hasn't risen, it means its 'bull market replacing gold' has not yet begun.
The contrast is striking: fiat currency has risen madly, while the gold standard has 'laid flat'.
First, let's look at two sets of data; you can see how disruptive they are by comparing them:
Fiat currency standard (dollars): in November 2022, the low point was about 15,000 dollars/coin, in 2025 it is now about 60,000 dollars/coin, which has tripled in two years, looking like a big bull market;
Gold standard (exchange for gold): In November 2022, it could be exchanged for about 1200 grams of gold (at that time gold was about 125 dollars/gram), and in 2025 it can still be exchanged for about 1200 grams of gold (now gold is about 500 dollars/gram) - the dollar price has risen, but the 'ability to exchange for gold' has not increased!
Why is this happening? Because the dollar price of gold has also risen in the past two years (from 125 dollars/gram to 500 dollars/gram), the dollar increase of Bitcoin has just been 'offset' by the dollar increase of gold. This indicates that Bitcoin has not truly 'outperformed' gold and has not yet begun to capture gold's 'value preservation share' - and this is where Bitcoin's greatest upside potential lies!
Let's do the math: surpassing gold in 2033, how does the 10-fold space come in 8 years?
Don't think that 'Bitcoin surpassing gold' is a fantasy; we can calculate it using market value to see how real it is:
Current market value comparison:
Total market value of gold: approximately 12 trillion dollars (global gold mined is about 200,000 tons, calculated at 500 dollars/gram);
Bitcoin's total market value: approximately 1.2 trillion dollars (currently 60,000 dollars/coin, total 21 million coins, about 19.5 million coins have been mined);
Gap: The current market value of Bitcoin is only 1/10 of gold!
How much does it need to rise to surpass gold in 2033?
Assuming that by 2033, the total market value of gold maintains at 12 trillion dollars (conservative estimate, after all, gold is still being increased each year), Bitcoin must exceed gold, and its total market value must reach at least over 12 trillion dollars.
Based on the total amount of Bitcoin being 21 million coins: 12 trillion dollars ÷ 21 million coins ≈ 570,000 dollars/coin.
Bitcoin is currently about 60,000 dollars/coin, 570,000 ÷ 60,000 ≈ 9.5 times - almost 10 times space!
Why can it surpass gold? 3 irreversible logics.
The speed of replacement is accelerating: more and more institutions are treating Bitcoin as 'digital gold' (such as Blackstone, Fidelity), and after the spot ETF is approved in 2024, billions of dollars will enter the market every day to grab shares;
The 'disadvantages' of gold are being amplified: gold transportation is difficult, storage is expensive, and division is troublesome, whereas Bitcoin transfers only take 5 minutes, are globally accepted, and can be divided down to 1 hundred millionth (Satoshi), so people in the digital age are more willing to choose the latter;
Total quantity advantage: gold is still being mined every year (about 3000 tons/year), while the total amount of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million coins. After the two halvings in 2024 and 2028, the new supply will become less and less, making its scarcity stronger than gold.
Lastly, a reminder: don't be fooled by the dollar price! The gold standard is the 'mirror to see the truth'.
Many people feel that 'Bitcoin has risen too high to dare to buy', but if viewed from a gold standard, it is still 'lying flat' near the lows of 2022 - just like in 2015 when Bitcoin's dollar price was 2000, it didn't rise when viewed from a gold standard, but later it surged to 20,000 dollars, and the gold standard also multiplied by 10.
The current situation is actually very similar: the rise in dollar price is just 'warming up'; the real bull market is the process in which Bitcoin begins to outperform gold and capture gold's market value - and this process is just beginning, we have 8 years to wait for the realization of the 10-fold space.
When do you think Bitcoin will surpass gold? Will it be before 2030, or will we have to wait until 2033? Let's discuss your judgment in the comments section, and we can track this 'digital gold replacement' big opportunity together!
After this modification, it both hits the cognitive blind spots of fans with 'comparative data' and makes the 10-fold space more credible with 'calculations', finally guiding discussions through interaction. If you want to add specific suggestions for 'how ordinary people should position themselves' (such as dollar-cost averaging, using gold standards to judge buying points), or supplement recent cases of institutions increasing their Bitcoin holdings, just let me know, and we can deepen the content~#上市公司囤币潮 #现货黄金创历史新高
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