After the non-farm payrolls release, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September is 11.7%, and the probability before the data release was 0. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 0.4%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is 36.2%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 50 basis points is 63.4%.

The initial rise is due to the non-farm data being lower than expected, making the likelihood of a rate cut on September 18 higher. The subsequent drop is due to the data being significantly lower than expected, raising concerns about the economy deteriorating.

Human nature is like this, fearing good non-farm data while also fearing bad data, worried about wolves in front and tigers behind, because we want to gain more.

The actual situation is a 25 basis point cut in September, the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0, and then another 25 basis points cut in October.

Additionally, the 10,000 $ETH tokens from the foundation have been sold out, slightly reducing the selling pressure.