Dear friends, I am a cryptocurrency enthusiast. Last night, the market was supposed to take off due to the 'great news' non-farm data, but ETH was brutally pushed back below 4500—this is not a technical adjustment, but a case of 'precise fabrication' from American data!
Breaking news: Is the non-farm data a fraud?
The non-farm payroll data released at 8:30 PM last night showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. The data was clearly positive, and ETH responded by surging 100 points. However, just two hours later, the market experienced a dramatic shift: the data was questioned for its authenticity, especially with the federal government showing a significant decrease in employment and the emergence of the 'DOGE effect', leading to large-scale selling by institutions.
What does this indicate? This is not the natural market trend but a 'double kill' created by leveraging information! Behind the data fraud, there is likely political power manipulation, and ETH was forcibly smashed through 4350, plummeting to support at 4250 before the decline paused.
The technical outlook has completely turned bearish: key positions have been broken, and the Bollinger Bands' lower track is under pressure!
Resistance level: 4350 has become a new peak, 4500 is absolute strong resistance, and the four failed attempts to advance indicate that the main force has no intention of truly breaking through;
Support level: 4250 is the current lifeline. If it is lost, the lower levels of 4200 or even the integer level of 4000 may be tested;
Bollinger Bands: It has now fallen to the lower track, technically it is considered oversold, but in a downtrend, overselling can still become more oversold, so avoid blindly bottom-fishing!
Exclusive viewpoint from Iron Eagle: The market will either move sideways with a slow decline or experience another sharp drop!
Although today is Saturday, the thin trading in the market may lead to sideways fluctuations during the day, but don't forget— the non-farm data fraud incident is still fermenting. If sentiment deteriorates again at night, ETH is very likely to test 4250 again or even fall below it!
I want to clearly tell everyone now: Do not believe in the long-term fantasy of 'data being bullish'. Currently, the political uncertainty in the United States is extremely high, and any news may be amplified into bearish sentiment. If retail investors heavily bottom-fish at this moment, it is equivalent to jumping into a fire pit!
What should retail investors do? Remember these three points!
Never hold a position: If there is a long position that bounces back to around 4350, decisively reduce your position, as it is difficult to break through under pressure;
Be cautious when bottom-fishing: Even if it reaches 4250, it is not recommended to take large positions to catch falling knives. Wait for a clear signal of stop-loss (such as a one-hour level volume bullish candle + stabilizing above 4300);
Strictly adhere to stop-loss: No matter if you are long or short, setting a stop-loss is the only way to survive!
Tonight's focus:
If 4250 holds, then the weekend will see sideways movement; if it breaks down, directly look at the 4200–4150 area. If there is sudden news from the external market on Sunday night, Monday's opening may gap down sharply!
#非农就业数据来袭 |
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