Non-farm data: The 'king of data' is coming, an analysis of its core impacts and market logic

Non-farm data is referred to as the 'king of data' in the financial market because it is the key 'employment report' published monthly by the United States, which can intuitively reflect the economic fundamentals. Its core consists of three indicators that together outline the overall picture of the U.S. job market:

- Non-farm employment number: Directly counts the number of new jobs added in the U.S. last month, serving as the core indicator for judging the expansion or contraction of the job market, where the increase or decrease in value directly corresponds to changes in market vitality.

- Unemployment rate: Calculates the proportion of those without jobs but actively seeking employment within the labor force, serving as an important reference for measuring the tightness of the job market, where the level of unemployment usually has an inverse relationship with economic prosperity.

- Employment rate: The proportion of the labor force that is employed relative to the total labor force, which can intuitively show the overall employment level in the U.S. and is a key dimension for assessing people's livelihoods and economic stability.

In simple terms, non-farm data is like a 'thermometer' for the U.S. economy—quantifying the employment market's warmth through specific data, guiding market expectations for future economic trends and monetary policy adjustments, ultimately affecting price fluctuations of various assets.

From the perspective of actual market impact, different performances of non-farm data can trigger vastly different market trends, as illustrated in the following two typical scenarios:

1. Weak data triggers market pressure: If the announced non-farm employment number is below 40,000, while the unemployment rate is within the range of 3.9%-4.1%, the market will generally worry about the deterioration of the job market—this means increased difficulty for the public in job hunting, and consumption capability may decline accordingly, raising downward pressure on the economy. Under this expectation, the market is highly likely to face downward pressure risks, potentially dipping to 107600 points.

2. Neutral data boosts rate cut expectations: If the non-farm employment number falls in the range of 45,000-70,000, and the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%-4.2%, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to implement a rate cut will significantly increase, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut rising substantially. Easing expectations will inject confidence into the market, and the trend is expected to gain upward momentum, potentially climbing to 116000 points. #加密市场回调 #非农就业数据来袭