The bullish sentiment of July hasn't faded yet, and August is directly increasing the difficulty. The market is filled with falling voices, and the sentiment has momentarily 'collapsed', but looking closely at on-chain data, you might find that this wave of 'pain' is just the prologue to a grand show.
Bitcoin's dominance is slipping, Ethereum is holding strong, altcoins are seeing capital inflows, and leading cryptocurrencies are at a technical crossroads... Is it that familiar 'prelude to altcoin season' again?
Today, we're not just focusing on BTC and ETH, but also digging deep into the real movements of potential coins like Solana, XRP, and 1INCH, to see which coins are worth keeping an eye on in August, or even taking a position.
BTC is fluctuating, but altcoins are quietly gaining momentum? Signals of the start of altcoin season are emerging.
Is altcoin season coming? With ETH rising and BTC retreating, will August's 'pain' bring about September's 'joy'?
Every August, the crypto space seems to stage a 'scripted drama': altcoins plummet, FUD flies around, and the group cries out in despair... Strangely enough, this 'painful' August often becomes the starting point for the next rebound.
In 2023 and 2024, altcoins dropped 28% and 40% in August respectively, but then immediately surged, with market capitalization increasing by more than 140%!
What about this year, 2025? Altcoins have already dropped about 13% from their highs, and could potentially drop another 8~10%, but from experience, this 'pullback' may be building momentum for the arrival of altcoin season.
Is history repeating itself? Altcoins have returned to a 'familiar script'.
Experienced investors understand that every August, altcoins seem to start plummeting as if someone has arranged it.
But after every sharp drop, in the following months, the market often starts a massive surge as if it has been injected with energy.
Analyst AshCrypto pointed out that this situation has been almost standard over the past two years:
First, there was a major drop in August.
Then there may be a violent rebound starting in September or October.
In the end, the market capitalization of altcoins doubled directly.
So will 2025 follow this pattern? So far, it really looks quite similar.
ETH rises, BTC retreats? Funds are shifting toward altcoins.
When it comes to altcoin season, Ethereum (ETH) is always the 'center stage'. Not only in terms of technical ecosystem, but even market trends often lead other altcoins.
Recently, many have boldly called for 'ETH to hit $8000', while Eric Trump has also jumped in to say 'buy on dips' and tagged BTC and ETH.
Although Trump's call level is subjective, from the perspective of on-chain and market structure, ETH is indeed gaining momentum:
The altcoin season index has risen to 45, approaching the threshold of 'typical altcoin season' at 75.
Bitcoin's dominance (BTC Dominance) has also dropped from 65% in July to 62%, indicating that funds are slowly flowing out of BTC into ETH and other altcoins.
If BTC's dominance continues to decline while ETH remains strong or even rises, then the entire altcoin market is likely to be ignited.
What other signals are there in this round of altcoin season?
In addition to Ethereum's strength, there are also some signals indicating:
The overall decline of altcoins has been compressed; many mainstream coins are approaching critical support, and the market may rebound at any time;
Funds are gradually positioning in cold wallets, and on-chain data shows that long-term investors are continuously hoarding coins;
Social media discussions are heating up, especially on X (formerly Twitter), where discussions about altcoin season are increasing.
The ETH/BTC trading pair is starting to strengthen, which has historically been a classic leading signal for the start of altcoin season.
So, although the altcoin market is still in a correction phase, it is like the calm before the storm; it seems peaceful but is actually building up energy.
We recommend that investors respond this way:
Don't chase highs, and don't panic buy; the market is still in a high volatility phase, avoid heavy chasing or panic selling.
Focus on leading altcoins like ETH, SOL, MATIC, LINK; these coins are often the starting point that drives the entire market.
Build positions in batches, start with light exposure to observe trends, and once signs of a launch are confirmed, gradually increase your stakes.
Risk control is essential; set stop-loss lines well. After all, not every altcoin season is guaranteed to come, and rationality is always the first principle in the crypto space.
Solana has fallen below $165; is there an opportunity hidden in the panic?
Selling has ended; HODLers are starting to act.
SOL has recently fallen to the point of causing some heartache, right? Watching it drop from $180+ down to $165, the group starts posting 'SOL is going to cool down', 'it's going to break down', 'better to go all in on Dogecoin'...
BUT! Let's calm down and not rush to cut losses. Some key data tells us: SOL may be approaching a local bottom, and the rebound might not be as far as you think.
Long-term players are quietly accumulating; smart money isn't panicking but is buying back?
Although SOL's recent price drop has left short-term traders trembling, long-term holders (HODLers) are behaving as if nothing has happened.
According to Glassnode data, since July 30, SOL's long-term holding net positions have surged by 102%!
This means:
Experienced investors are quietly increasing their holdings, with no signs of panic. More and more SOL is being transferred to cold wallets; in other words: this is strategic positioning, not fleeing.
Why are they doing this? Because they know that this drop is not a 'collapse'—but a possible entry opportunity.
Has the 'surrender-style' selling pressure finished?
Interestingly, the realized profit/loss ratio (P/L) plummeted to 0.15 on August 2, setting a new low for nearly a month.
What does this mean? Simply put:
Recently, most people selling SOL are losing money. Historically, this kind of 'panic selling' usually occurs when the market is near the bottom.
Once the panic sellers have sold out, the market's selling pressure will naturally lighten. Those who can still hold on at this time are often the 'survivors preparing to feast'.
Technical analysis shows: selling pressure is weakening, and conditions for a rebound are gradually maturing.
Let’s take a look at a few key chart signals:
1. The RSI indicator is currently at 41.65, approaching the oversold range. This means that selling pressure is not as fierce as before, and the bears are losing steam.
2. The OBV (On-Balance Volume) trend is stabilizing, indicating that selling pressure is decreasing. Although buying pressure is not yet strong, 'selling fatigue' has appeared.
Although the price is still hovering below $165, if sellers continue to weaken and buyers exert even a little more effort, the market could be ignited.
What should we do now? Cut losses or position ourselves?
You might be wondering: is it time to cut losses and leave? Or should I take the opportunity to buy low?
We suggest first analyzing calmly:
$165 is an important support level; as long as it is not effectively broken, this could be a local bottom.
Don't go all in, don't act impulsively; consider building positions in batches to mitigate risks.
The bullish logic for mid-term looks unchanged; Solana's ecosystem construction, NFT activities, and on-chain user activity are still solid, not just empty speculation.
Short-term volatility often reflects emotional release; the real winners are never those who make decisions at the height of emotions.
In summary: sell in fear, buy in quietness—this is the survival rule for seasoned investors.
If you remember how SOL was disparaged below $10 at the beginning of 2023 but surged above $200, you won't be scared away by this pullback.
A sharp drop is not the end; it may just be the starting point for a new round of market activity.
When everyone starts to doubt, it is often the moment that deserves the most attention.
And those who can truly capitalize on the market are often the players who 'held their ground and didn't exit' at the bottom.
Has XRP encountered a death cross, is it really going to 'cool down'?
XRP's recent performance is also not very reassuring. It has fallen from a July high of $3.65 to around $2.99 now, a decline of nearly 17%. Although there has been a 6% rebound in the last 24 hours, overall it is still in a corrective channel.
More seriously, the on-chain data shows an 'MVRV death cross', which is a relatively serious bearish signal.
The MVRV ratio indicates: the current market value compared to the investor's buying price reflects the profit and loss level.
When the short-term MVRV crosses below the long-term MVRV, it forms a 'death cross'.
Historically, such crossovers usually signal a deeper price adjustment.
However, it is not completely unsolvable:
RSI is approaching oversold territory.
The random RSI has hit the bottom.
If it can hold $2.95 and break back above the resistance of $3.20, there is a chance to strengthen.
For XRP, the next few days are crucial.
Will 1inch rebound after a sharp dive? On-chain data reveals a secret opportunity.
If you have been following 1inch (1INCH) over the past few weeks, you may have already felt that suffocating roller coaster sensation. After surging to $0.391 in mid-July, it slid all the way down to $0.232 in early August, a staggering drop of 40.7%! Many were scared and liquidated their positions, exclaiming 'this is the end'.
But wait, things may not be as desperate as you think. In fact, from a larger cycle perspective, the basic structure of 1inch has not been completely destroyed and may even hide a good accumulation opportunity.
This sharp drop may have smashed back into the 'golden pit'.
Don't just focus on how much the price has fallen; look at where it has fallen to.
From a technical perspective, 1inch's recent drop has just pushed the price back to the important resistance level from May, which is the $0.24 region. Recently, it has just paused here—indicating that this is a substantial support zone.
In other words, this could be a very standard 'support level retest' action. For those familiar with trends, this position is rather a window for 'buying low'.
Technical indicators are a bit messy, but there are also many interesting clues.
Of course, if you look at some technical indicators, like CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) at -0.26, it usually means there is still significant selling pressure; MACD also shows bearish momentum. These are not the kind of signals that suggest 'soaring is imminent'.
But don't rush; there are two interesting details worth noting:
The A/D line (Accumulation/Distribution line) has remained stable over the past 10 days—indicating that although there is selling pressure, there is no new round of strong exit.
Prices are gradually stabilizing at the bottom, beginning to consolidate sideways, and no longer experiencing sharp declines.
The combination of these two indicates that selling sentiment is waning, and the market may already be 'changing hands'.
On-chain data is more intriguing: sentiment is poor, but some are secretly hoarding coins!
According to Santiment's on-chain data, social sentiment for 1inch during this period is indeed bearish, with many choosing to observe or avoid the spotlight.
But behind the gloomy sentiment, there is one data point that stands out: the average coin age is steadily increasing. What does it mean? Simply put:
Many coins have not been traded out,
Quietly lying in wallets,
This indicates that someone is quietly stocking up, preparing to 'ambush'.
This is a typical 'others fear, I am greedy' scenario.
Is the derivatives market 'draining liquidity' an opportunity or a trap?
In addition, the derivatives market for 1inch is also changing:
The financing interest rate once turned negative, indicating that the market is generally bearish;
However, it quickly returned to normal;
At the same time, the number of open contracts is also decreasing.
These signs tell us: most short-term speculators have 'exited the stage', market sentiment is becoming calm, and the main players' accumulation space may be opening up.
The key observation point ahead: can it hold $0.24?
If the support at $0.24 holds steady and there is a volume increase in price or volume stabilizes at the bottom, it means:
The bears failed to break through the critical support;
Bulls may begin to position for the next upward wave.
At this time, if Bitcoin can stabilize near $112,000, then the chances for the entire market to rebound will be magnified. As one of the representative coins of DeFi, 1inch will naturally benefit.
In short: 1inch looks grim, but its potential is not dead.
Although from a short-term trend perspective, the chart of 1inch may not look 'good enough', from a technical and on-chain data perspective:
A support retest after a large drop is reasonable;
Long-term funds are quietly flowing back;
A subdued sentiment is instead a great opportunity for positioning;
Perhaps this low point hides the next 'doubling point'.
So if you are still hesitating whether to bottom fish, it might be worth waiting to see the performance near $0.24. If it holds steady, it may be time to consider buying in batches~
In conclusion: Is it worth watching altcoins this August?
Overall, we are at a very delicate moment:
BTC is consolidating, the trend is unclear, but funds are beginning to shift. ETH is relatively strong and is a key variable for the launch of altcoin season. Coins like Solana, XRP, and 1INCH are showing clear signs of low-level accumulation. Altseason indicators are gradually approaching 75, with clear signs of fund infiltration.
So, this August is not an easy 'launch rally', but it is indeed a stage suitable for early positioning and waiting for an explosion.
Investment tips & suggested strategies.
Don't blindly go all in; patiently wait for structural opportunities. Pay attention to key support levels and volume changes for ETH, SOL, XRP, and 1INCH. If the altcoin season truly kicks off, mainstream coins will rise first, followed by small coins. Seize the opportunity for structural rebounds, and manage profit-taking and stop-loss well.
Sometimes, real opportunities are hidden during the market's 'silent periods'.
Decline, panic, pessimism... these are all the 'background sounds' before altcoin season.
The real climax may be brewing.
The crypto space changes rapidly, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Learning to enter and exit strategically while protecting your principal is essential for steady progress and wealth growth.
Remember to DYOR, manage risk well, and wish everyone smooth sailing in the crypto space!
Like, share, and follow me for more insights into the crypto space! Let's keep pushing!
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