The market is like playing cards; sometimes you have a good hand but still lose — it’s not that the cards are bad, but the opponent is more seasoned. Yesterday ETH was like this; upon seeing the US employment data, which seemed all good news, the market thought it could take off, but ETH suddenly fell through, directly dropping down.

Good news doesn't rise, this is the biggest bearish signal!

So the question arises: Is ETH really going to drop today, or is the main force just holding back a big move?

Last night, around the US market opening, several key data points were released by the United States:

ADP Employment Numbers (August): Previous Value 106,000, Expected 65,000, Actual Only 54,000 —— Employment Clearly Cooling;

The initial unemployment claims for this week: previous value 229,000, expected 230,000, actual 237,000 — exceeded expectations;

These two data points can be interpreted as: the employment market is cooling down, and unemployment is increasing. In other words, the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing aggressive interest rate hikes is decreasing, and expectations for interest rate cuts are more solid. Logically, such news should be good for risk assets (including the stock market and crypto market), and ETH should be supported, even seeing a rebound.

But the reality is: once the data was released, ETH briefly surged, then quickly fell back, closing even in the red.

Many people don't understand: since the news is positive, why is the coin price still falling?

Good news not rising = capital is saying 'no'

The market often says: 'If good news doesn't lead to a rise, there must be hidden worries.'

Yesterday's situation is a typical case.

Good news has been realized, and funds choose to exit.

Employment data indeed strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, but this logic was already digested by capital in advance.

In other words, the good news was already reflected in the price before it was announced, and at the moment of the announcement, it became the 'best reason for selling'.

ETF capital flow is showing divergence

In the past few days, ETH ETF has consistently seen net inflows, pushing the price up to around 4,400.

But since yesterday, there has been a net outflow for the day, indicating that some funds are choosing to exit due to the news.

This is a typical case of 'good news released → main force offloading'.

US stocks are weak, with insufficient risk appetite

After the data was released, the three major US stock indices couldn't sustain their strength, indicating that large funds did not significantly increase their positions in risk assets.

The crypto market naturally followed the pressure.

What does the technical aspect tell us?

Combining the 1-hour K-line of ETH this morning:

Trend shape

When the data was announced last night, ETH surged above 4360 but was immediately suppressed, then fell back to around 4280.

Although there was a rebound in the morning session today, it still failed to recover the key resistance zone of 4360~4380.

Moving average structure

Although the short moving averages (5/10MA) have a turning point, the pressure from the 20MA is significant.

This indicates that the current market situation is just a corrective rebound after a decline, not a reversal.

Key position

Support: 4280/4250 (the rebound initiation point last night), 4208 (previous low).

Resistance: 4360-4380 (moving average pressure + concentrated chip area), 4440-4460 (short-term target).

In a nutshell: ETH is still struggling in a volatile range, and the good news hasn't been able to break through the structural pressure.

Deep logic: Why couldn't good news drive a big rise?

Good news doesn't equal real capital inflow

The cooling of employment and the good news is just a macro 'expectation strengthening', but whether capital is really willing to buy is the key.

Without new funds, good news is just 'air'.

The main force uses news to make a bet against the opponent

Before the announcement, the market was generally bullish, and retail investors' chasing long sentiment was strong.

The moment the news landed, the main force chose to sell, completing the chip exchange.

The mid-term logic for ETH is fine, but short-term speculation is more intense.

In the long term, interest rate cuts + ETFs + on-chain upgrades, ETH is still a leading asset.

But short-term capital speculation is just a 'long-short game'; if good news doesn't rise, it directly turns weak.

Old Zhu's trading logic for today

My logic is very clear:

4300 is the watershed; if it holds, it can be looked at again; if it breaks, it will be a new round of liquidation.

The short-term main force has no intention of giving up this range of fluctuations but will not make it easy for those chasing long positions.

So the market outlook is: neither up nor down, keep an eye on volume and key levels.

Short-term trading strategy

Resistance level: 4360~4380, this is the barrier that the bulls couldn't overcome yesterday. If it can't break through, don't chase long.

Support level: 4280, further down is 4250, and below that is 4208 as the bottom. If it can't hold, the risk increases.

The watershed: 4300, the boundary point for long and short today.

Operational suggestions:

Long position idea: Either wait for a volume breakout above 4380 and enter on a pullback; or wait to buy on dips if 4280/4250 holds.

Short selling idea: If it can't break through 4360, short directly, with the first target at 4280. If it breaks below 4280, the short position can be held to 4210.

Survival skills:

In a volatile market, don't go all in; a position of 20% to 40% is enough;

Don't chase in the middle; wait for a breakout or a pullback. Be a little less impulsive and a little more patient.

Old Zhu's summary:

Yesterday's data should have been the 'tailwind' for ETH, but the market interpreted it as a 'reason to sell'. This reveals an iron rule: the market is always led by capital, not by news.

If good news doesn't rise, it is the biggest bearish signal.

Only when ETH effectively breaks through 4360~4380, accompanied by capital inflow, does the market have a real chance of starting.

The market is like a war without gunpowder; those who survive are always the ones who understand trade-offs. The current trend of ETH has both opportunities and risks; I have already clarified the direction, now it depends on how you grasp it.

If you want to get Old Zhu's exclusive market analysis + short-term trading strategies as soon as possible every day, remember to follow @加密老朱 and don't be an outsider to the information.

Following the right people and taking the right path is more important than just watching the market. #ETH走势分析