The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for August in the United States was released:
The data recorded 54,000 jobs, lower than the expected 65,000 jobs, and significantly below the previous value of 106,000 jobs, which was revised up from the original 104,000 jobs.
In terms of industry performance, the leisure and hotel services sector saw an increase, while several industries such as manufacturing and trade experienced job losses.
In this release, the data from medium to large enterprises was the main support, while the data from small enterprises weakened.
Wage data showed that the same-job wage increased by 4.4%, and the wage for job changers increased by 7.1%.
Overall data assessment:
The Non-Farm Employment Change data supports a rapid slowdown in employment data, which essentially raises expectations for a better interest rate cut path. Currently, the data has not triggered market concerns about risks in the job market; of course, this could very well be due to the relatively weak influence of the Non-Farm Employment Change data.
If the Non-Farm Employment Change data declines sharply like the previous data, it could trigger market concerns about the downside risks in the job market. This has already been explained, especially if the unemployment rate exceeds expectations; even if it raises expectations for interest rate cuts, it may not necessarily boost the market.
Currently, CME swap rates show a 97.4% probability of an interest rate cut in September and a 54.1% probability in October.
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