“Stunning turnaround! Trump's tariff policy unexpectedly becomes the bull market engine, even the retail investors are copying homework!”
Today, the ETH market is like being rubbed on the ground by Trump's tariff policy—repeated fluctuations make it difficult to break through key resistance levels.
In the morning, Trump said, “Tariffs may replace income tax,” and the market immediately shook, with ETH once plunging to around 4280, then bouncing back to hover around 4350.
In simple terms, this market is dominated by news rather than technicals; big funds are waiting to see policy developments, while retail investors can only suffer through the fluctuations.
From a technical perspective:
ETH's recent weakness is closely related to the macro environment. The escalation of the trade war has led to a surge in market risk aversion, gold skyrocketing, and funds flowing out of risk assets into ETH as the leading altcoin with high beta value, dropping more sharply than BTC—whale holdings have decreased by 10% since February, and on-chain liquidity is also shrinking.
In early March, when Trump's tariff policy was implemented, ETH plunged 15% in a single day, and the DeFi locked value dropped from 71 billion to 48 billion, indicating that institutions and large holders are reducing positions to hedge against risks.
Personal Opinion: In the short term, ETH is unlikely to strengthen independently unless two major catalysts occur:
1. Successful implementation of the Pectra upgrade, improving network efficiency and staking attractiveness.
2. Rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, as the market has priced in four rate cuts within the year, which, if realized, could lead to a return of funds to risk assets.
However, retail investors need to be prepared for both scenarios:
1. If it breaks below the 4280 support: In the short term, it may test 4200 or even 4180; don’t rush to bottom fish, wait for a daily level stop-loss signal.
2. If it breaks through 4350 with volume: You can enter with a small position to bet on a rebound, targeting the 4450–4500 resistance area.
From a long-term perspective, the ETH ecosystem remains solid—Layer 2 is booming, and staking rates are hitting new highs. If macro conditions improve by the end of the year, reaching 8000 dollars is not impossible. But the black swan of the tariff policy has not flown away, and Trump's next move is the biggest variable.
Currently, market volatility has surged to 60%, with both opportunities and risks amplifying. Remember to strictly control your positions and keep enough ammunition—August's non-farm payroll data and ETF fund flows could be the next explosion points. Keep a close eye on these nodes, and don’t get washed out during the fluctuations!
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