U.S. Jobs Data Set to Drive Rate Cut Expectations

The U.S. labor market will be in focus this week as key economic indicators are released, potentially shaping interest rate expectations.

📊 Key Data Releases

ADP Employment Report (August): Previous 104,000, expected 65,000. Release at 20:15 UTC+8 tonight.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 30): Previous 229,000, expected 230,000. Release at 20:30 UTC+8 tonight.

Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (August): Scheduled for 20:30 UTC+8 tomorrow.

🔎 Why It Matters

This week’s labor market data carries heightened importance, with U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underscoring its impact. If job growth falls below expectations, markets may price in aggressive interest rate cuts, with speculation of one or more 50 basis point reductions.

At the Jackson Hole Symposium, Powell warned of rising economic and employment risks, while balancing government pressure for cuts with inflation risks fueled by tariffs. As a result, tomorrow’s jobs report could have an outsized effect on both policy outlook and market sentiment.

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