In the past two days, $BTC is still walking the repair market. Although we still do not know whether the Bitcoin has successfully bottomed out at 107250, it does not prevent us from trying to open long positions at low prices.
What makes people feel at ease is that Bitcoin is still moving very regularly. After two attempts to break through the pressure level converted from 112 top and bottom on the hourly chart, it failed and then retraced to receive support from the 1h EMA200 before continuing to break through, finally successfully breaking through 112000 on the third attempt, showing signs of strengthening trend.
Since this morning's retracement, we need to observe the support strength near the common level of 1h EMA200 and 4h EMA20 around 110700. If it stabilizes here and completes the consolidation, we can expect the next step to challenge the 4h EMA200 at 113200.
In conjunction with the recent significant rise in gold after nearly 4 months of adjustment, we can find some commonalities between gold and Bitcoin. This time, the high-level oscillation of gold is digesting the high price chips, which is very similar to the Bitcoin trend from March to September 2024. Now that Bitcoin has reached a historical high, it is also very likely to appear again in a way of horizontal movement instead of a decline, using time to exchange for space to digest chips.
As large institutions enter the market, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are gradually beginning to depopulate retail investors, and Bitcoin, which has a deeper degree of depopulation, will inevitably reduce the volatility in the short term, after all, institutional adjustments are not as emotional as those of retail investors.
Looking at the larger cycle, under the premise that the bull market is still ongoing, the correction at each stage of the bull top and bull bottom is generally around 30%. That is to say, assuming 124500 is the top of this bull market, then the extreme bottom would be around 85000. However, such a low position must be accompanied by macro event panic emotions to push it down over a longer period.
Generally speaking, the first wave of correction in a small cycle is about a drop of 10+%, for example in March 2024 and January 2025. However, this kind of trend is usually accompanied by a sharp rebound and then a rapid drop again to truly reach the bottom. Currently, there is still a lack of a large bearish candle with volume, which is also the key reason that prevents many people from confidently going long.
Therefore, tonight and tomorrow night, we need to keep a close eye on the market sentiment changes triggered by the small and large non-farm data. If there is a short-term surge, it would be appropriate to either close long positions or open short ones. After all, the trend has ended, and both long and short can make money, but don't fantasize about making money on both sides at the same time.
