With news blowing in, the K-line is raining down — the drama of Trump being 'backstabbed' sounds fierce at first, but upon closer inspection, it remains stagnant, and ETH today still needs to honestly rely on technicals for sustenance!
As a veteran in the crypto space for many years, I’ll be straightforward: the short-term impact of political farce on the crypto market is like throwing a stone into the ocean — you hear a sound, and it’s gone. Infighting within the Republican Party and delays in regulatory appointments can at most shake retail investors' mentality a bit, but what truly determines ETH's movements today is still the language of the market.
From a technical perspective, ETH is currently stuck in an awkward position of 'needing to go up or down':
The upper pressure is solid: $4498 is the Fibonacci 0.0% main resistance level, and also a short-term 'psychological ceiling'. Several attempts to rise have been pushed back, indicating that the main forces do not want to break through right now.
The lower support is barely holding: 4421 and 4380 are considered short-term defense lines, but the trading volume has already exposed issues — you see, it’s only 88,000, lower than MA(10) at 105,000; shrinking volume during fluctuations means the market is watching, and no one is willing to lead with real money.
Last month, Biden's regulatory remarks suddenly turned negative, causing ETH to plunge 5% in an hour, but the next day it directly reversed and recovered — panic from news is always a short-lived trend, especially in this kind of 'politician mudslinging'. The direction that can truly be sustained must come from a combination of volume and price. For example, right now, ETH's hourly MACD is already close to the zero axis, volatility is shrinking, and it is clearly holding back direction.
My judgment is: today is likely to continue with a 'volatile time-consuming' pattern. The Trump news might cause a brief spike in the market, but it won't change the small range consolidation pattern. In terms of operations, avoid chasing highs and selling lows; it is recommended to place buy orders around 4420 and sell pressure near 4490, with a stop loss below 4380.
September is a sensitive period for the Fed's interest rate hikes; political dramas are always just side dishes, with macro liquidity being the main course. Want to keep an eye on ETH's next true direction? Pay attention to tonight's U.S. stock market opening and the dollar index movements — that is the real guiding stick for big funds.
If you are unclear about specific points, you can follow @船长趋势 . Friends who have been alerted in the village in the last 24 hours, pay attention to my updates.
Do you all think we can break 5000 points in the next couple of days? Feel free to leave your comments.
