The Ministry of Finance of Russia has announced a sharp increase in foreign currency and gold sales under the budget rule, with the volume of operations from September 5 to October 6 amounting to 31.5 billion rubles, or 1.4 billion rubles daily. This is significantly higher than the current parameters, as during the period from August 7 to September 4, the agency sold only 0.3 billion rubles per day. At the same time, the Central Bank will adjust its actions and enter the market with sales equivalent to 10.34 billion rubles of currency per day compared to 9.24 billion rubles a month earlier.
The reason for this tactic is the deficit of oil and gas revenues in the Russian treasury. In September, the Ministry of Finance forecasts a shortfall of 21 billion rubles, while in August the shortfall was 10.5 billion rubles. Currency and gold sales under these conditions are aimed at covering the budget's lost revenues, reducing dependence on domestic borrowing, and simultaneously supporting the ruble's exchange rate amidst ongoing pressure from imports and seasonal payments. The increase in the daily volume of operations reflects the necessity for more active restraint of currency fluctuations against the backdrop of falling oil and gas revenues, and as a consequence, the sales of currency earnings by exporters.
For the market, this means maintaining additional currency supply, which will work in favor of strengthening the ruble's exchange rate or preventing it from a sharp decline. According to Freedom Finance Global, by the end of 2025, the ruble may weaken to 88–92 per dollar due to declining export revenues or renewed import growth. Thus, the current policy of the Ministry of Finance will smooth out fluctuations but will not change the fundamental trend of gradual ruble depreciation. However, in the event of another increase in foreign currency and gold sales under the budget rule starting in October, the dollar exchange rate may rise only to 84-86 rubles by the end of the year.