Bitcoin is in 'fear' mode: $115,000 short barrier, will BTC make a comeback? 😱🚀
Recently, Bitcoin [BTC]'s movements have made many feel uneasy—the price hesitates near key support levels, falling 4% over the week to a new eight-week low of $107,452. 📉
On the surface, Bitcoin seems to be probing the bottom in the short term, but in reality, open contracts have surged to $84.93 billion, with extremely high leverage. Simply put: liquidity sweep is almost inevitable, and the market is undergoing a 'major reshuffle'. 🌀
BTC has broken through support, and market sentiment indicates 'fear'
If Bitcoin falls below $110,000, risk aversion may deepen rapidly. The fear and greed index has just reached a four-month low, dropping from the previous day's 50 (neutral) to 39 (fear), indicating a clear weakening of confidence. 📉
However, don't panic completely—past three times that fell into this emotional zone have triggered strong rebounds. When the index reached 42, Bitcoin surged to its then-peak price of $123,000 in less than three weeks. 💥
Interestingly, this time the market has seen a key divergence: previously, the $107,000 to $110,000 range belonged to the 'greed' zone, indicating overheated positions and an easy peak. Now, the same range is being tested by the 'fear' zone, and market sentiment is being reshuffled. 📊
In other words, former resistance levels may have turned into potential support levels. From a technical perspective, this reversal usually creates a reverse rebound structure for Bitcoin, especially when liquidity starts to gather towards buyers.
Stablecoin liquidity is restricted, and the risk of a bull market trap still exists
Liquidity accumulation is key to a bull market, but recent conditions have been somewhat elusive. Minting stablecoins is a good way to observe liquidity—over the past three days, issuers have issued a total of $4 billion in bonds 💰.
But the problem is that the BTC price has consecutively lost support levels, indicating that this new liquidity has not directly entered spot buying. Worse still, on August 27, the net outflow of USDT reached $915 million, and Bitcoin fell by 3.67% in the following 48 hours. This means that even if someone is minting stablecoins, buying interest remains weak, and the decline near $110,000 has not been absorbed. 📉
In this case, market risk appetite has clearly weakened, with a stronger bearish inclination. Spot buying is scarce, liquidity is in a wait-and-see attitude, and panic sentiment is spreading. 😰
Short positions remain, and the rebound space for BTC is limited
Currently, the market does not have obvious bottom signals. There is about $2 billion of short barriers around $115,000, which means that if bulls want to push the price higher, they need to digest these shorts first. 💣
Unless large buying occurs, the upward space for Bitcoin is likely limited. At this stage, BTC remains susceptible to further declines. If market sentiment does not shift from 'fear' to 'greed', the smoothest path may still be downward. 📉
Summary
BTC is holding onto key support levels, but the market is hesitant.
Open contracts and leverage are extremely high, creating significant liquidity sweep risks.
The fear and greed index has hit a four-month low, and market confidence is weakening.
Former resistance levels may turn into support levels, and a short-term rebound may occur.
Stablecoin liquidity is limited, spot buying is insufficient, and risks remain high.
The $115,000 short barrier has not been digested, limiting upward space, and downside risks still exist.
💡 Overall, Bitcoin may have a rebound opportunity in the short term, but risks remain high, and investors need to be cautious. Market sentiment and liquidity trends are more worth paying attention to than the price itself!
