Last night, BTC's 1-hour K-line chart showed intense long-short battles, struggling repeatedly. The pressure zone above 109500-110500 is like a sword hanging overhead, while the support level at 107000 has become the last line of defense for the bulls! What’s more bizarre is that this volatility is actually “decoupled” from the evening's US PCE data—data that met expectations with minimal impact; what kind of capital layout is hidden behind the crash? Every fluctuation at this moment could become the fuse for igniting subsequent market trends.
In-depth technical analysis
From the 1-hour K-line chart, BTC is currently in a typical “contracting triangle” pattern:
Upper pressure: The 109500-110500 range has a dense distribution of short orders, forming a high-pressure rebound zone. Any rebound before a significant breakout is seen as a trap for longs;
Lower support: 107500 is a short-term psychological defense line, but the real key support is at 107000 and 105000. Once it breaks down with volume below 107000, it will trigger a chain sell-off straight to 105000!
Indicator signals: The moving average line is in a sticky state, with unclear long and short momentum. However, it is worth noting that the main forces are repeatedly testing and laying down long positions around 107000, indicating there may be a short-term rebound opportunity here.
The paradox of data and market sentiment
Although the US July core PCE year-on-year rate (2.9%), personal spending month-on-month rate (0.5%), and other data all met expectations, BTC fell contrary to logic, indicating:
Desensitized to news: The market has already digested expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy, and the impact of data is diminishing;
Hidden bearish news: There may be undisclosed large institutional sell pressure and potential risks such as the break of the exchange leverage liquidation chain, requiring high vigilance!
Market forecast and retail investor strategy
Short-term: If 107000 holds steady, you can try to go long with a light position (stop loss at 106800), aiming for a rebound at 109500; if it breaks 107000, then chase short towards 105000.
Mid-term: Before breaking 110500, the overall trend remains bearish, but there may be institutional bottom-fishing opportunities near 105000.
Ultimate suspense: Is there a hidden capital trap of “false breakdown and true surge” in the current market? Whether it rises sharply or falls sharply depends on whether the 107000 defense line can hold until the last second...
Retail investor survival guide
Avoid blindly chasing highs and killing lows! The current market needs to focus on a defensive stance:
Strictly control your position within 10%, and be sure to stop loss if key levels are broken;
Pay attention to the night-time Asian capital flow and USDT premium index, which may suggest the true intentions of the main forces;
If you don’t know what an effective breakout is, you can come to find me, and I will guide you step by step.
Are you stuck? Don’t know when to enter? As I said, if you feel confused and helpless and don’t know what to do, click on my profile and comment. I need fans, and you need references.