The PCE data for July released in the evening all met expectations. The first item in the best-case scenario previously mentioned (July PCE meeting expectations, August non-farm payrolls continuing to be weak and not exceeding expectations, and August CPI remaining moderate) has been fulfilled, at least dispelling concerns raised by the significantly higher-than-expected July PPI.

Next is next Friday's non-farm payroll data. It is best if it is close to expectations (a small deviation from expectations, whether it meets, is slightly lower, or slightly higher is acceptable), which would basically confirm a rate cut in September;

A significantly lower-than-expected result could raise expectations for a stronger rate cut, but the market would also need to bear the small shock of recession concerns;

A significantly higher-than-expected result would naturally be the worst for the market, and the path for rate cuts would need to change.