BTC breaks through the 111,000 support on the one-hour chart, the market once again proves: Panic selling is the best friend in a bull market, but the premise is that you can understand the explosive signal after the Bollinger Bands narrow.

Market context: BTC declines with reduced volume, breaking key levels, while ETH follows suit but has hidden support logic.

From the one-hour chart, BTC indeed performed poorly today:

Details are as follows...

Technical evidence of weakness: The price not only broke the 111,000 support (marked as a key level in the chart) but also dropped directly to near the lower Bollinger Band (110,584). The MACD's DIF and DEA lines have crossed below the zero line, with the green bars (MACD value -419.17) showing no resistance - this indicates that short-term bulls are not willing to step in.
Volume exposes the truth: Trading volume has shrunk to 1,407 coins (compared to over 2,000 in previous days), indicating that retail investors are just lying flat, and large funds have no direction. This kind of declining volume is the most annoying because once there is a breakout with increased volume, the stampede will be even more severe.

But old investors understand: BTC's drop does not mean a market crash, especially since ETH often moves independently. I looked through today's news and found two key clues:

The Fed's September interest rate meeting preliminary battle begins: Powell will speak tonight, and the market fears the resumption of interest rate hike expectations (although the probability is low), so large funds are preemptively reducing positions to avoid risks. But note - this decline has not been accompanied by massive liquidations (only $300 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours), indicating that the main players are not dumping, but rather retail investors are cutting losses among themselves.
ETH's invisible benefits support: BlackRock's ETH spot ETF enters its final review period next week, and on-chain data shows that giant addresses continue to accumulate ETH (net increase of 120,000 coins in the past week). Therefore, even if BTC drops, the drop in ETH is likely to converge, and it may even rebound suddenly to attract BTC funds.


Old Jin's personal opinion: In a volatile market, those who panic sell will suffer losses.

I experienced the 519 crash in 2021, when BTC fell from 59,000 to 30,000, and many people sold at the bottom; two months later, it surged back to 64,000. The same script is playing out now:

Case comparison: On August 25, BTC also broke below 110,000, but the next day it immediately rebounded to 113,000, allowing those who sold to perfectly miss the rebound. Today's hourly decline hasn't even touched the weekly trend line (108,000), so it doesn't count as a true breakout.
Trading strategy: If you hold spot, just turn off your phone and sleep; if you trade contracts, you can watch whether BTC can close above 111,300 in an hour (a signal to re-stand on the middle Bollinger Band); if it does, the short-term rebound target looks at 112,500. ETH is simpler - as long as BTC doesn't crash, a drop below 6,500 is a buying opportunity.

Powell is highly likely to deliver dovish remarks tonight (the inflation data is actually quite good), and if BTC violently rebounds above 112,000, those who sold off today will regret it. For those looking to position themselves for an ETH rebound, the only analyst who dares to show real positions is here; those who followed have already doubled their investments while critics are still eating instant noodles. Follow me for the next analysis - (The night before the ETF approval, how giant whales are positioning in ETH), and tomorrow I will timely analyze on-chain data secrets.