1. Core viewpoint: Economic data triggering a bull trap, technical death cross confirms downward trend.
Last night at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. released two key economic data points—initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29 (221,000, lower than expected) and the revised annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP for Q2 (2.1%, lower than previous value)—both showing signs of economic slowdown. However, major funds operated contrary to this, first driving prices up to 116034 to create a false breakout, and then violently crashing prices, completing the classic 'bait and harvest' strategy. Current prices have dead-crossed down to 111035, with BOLL indicators showing middle track resistance at 112161.92 and lower track support at 110922.36. MACD indicators (DIF: 248.92, DEA: 86.08) show strengthening bearish momentum. If the key resistance level of 115712 cannot be broken, the downside risk will sharply increase.
2. In-depth analysis of news: Why is bad data resulting in contrary operations?
Initial jobless claims data lower than expected suggests the labor market remains resilient, delaying expectations for Fed rate cuts, which should be a negative for risk assets, but major players exploit retail sentiment that 'bad news is good news' to create false breakouts.
Revised GDP figures indicate economic weakness, but the market is more concerned about tightening monetary policy under persistent inflation, leading to amplified short-term risk-averse behavior.
The PCE price index will be announced tonight, with the market expecting the core PCE annual rate to be 2.8%. If it exceeds expectations, it will further strengthen tightening expectations.
Conclusion: Divergence between data and price fluctuations is a typical control strategy by institutions, and retail investors chasing highs are likely to become 'bag holders.'
3. Key position analysis from a technical perspective: A glance at the bull-bear life and death line.
Current technical form:
Price death cross at 111035, with BOLL middle track (112161.92) forming strong resistance.
MACD double lines turn from above to below zero, green bars shrink, and bearish momentum strengthens.
Key resistance levels above: 115712 (a breakthrough opens up upward space to 117000), 112612 (short-term pressure).
Support below: 108563 (if broken, will accelerate down to 105000).
Volume analysis:
Trading volume 2.7196 million contracts, turnover rate 6.5756 million contracts.
MA(5) average volume line at 4.4655 million contracts, MA(10) average volume line at 6.2720 million contracts, indicating insufficient capital participation.
Indicator resonance:
RSI is in the oversold range but has not crossed up.
KDJ indicator at a low level is dull, and short-term rebounds are merely technical repairs.
4. Emergency self-rescue strategy for those trapped at 116034.
Light position holders: Decisively reduce positions and stop losses when rebounding to the 113000-114500 range to avoid deep entrapment.
Heavy position holders: Gradually add positions near the support level of 108563 to lower costs, and take partial profits above 115000 on rebounds.
Extreme situation: If it breaks below 108563, immediately cut positions to prevent a crash.
Contract players: Set stop-loss above 115712, primarily short on rebounds.
5. Market trend assessment and trading guide.
Medium-term bearish logic:
Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations are leaning hawkish.
Confirmation of the death cross pattern in technical analysis.
Volume continues to shrink.
Economic data supports risk-averse sentiment.
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