🚨Trend Analysis🚨
•🚀 Current Trend: The overriding trend on this 1h chart appears bearish. After a sharp decline around August 22-23 (from ~113,500 to ~108,500), price attempted a recovery, forming an ascending trendline (blue line) from August 23-27. However, the breakdown below this trendline and the purple consolidation box (August 27-28) signals a resumption of the downtrend. The latest price action (as of 12:22 UTC-5:30 on August 29, 2025, or 12:27 PM IST) shows a steep decline toward ~111,187.89, with momentum favoring sellers.
• 🚀 Trend Direction: Bearish continuation is the most likely scenario, targeting lower support levels. A reversal would require a clear higher low and bullish candlestick confirmation, which isn’t present yet.
🚨Key Levels🚨
🚀• Resistance:
• Immediate: 111,600-112,000 (bottom of the purple consolidation box, now acting as resistance).
• Next: 112,380 (recent swing low turned resistance).
• Major: 113,000-113,800 (prior highs and trendline retest zone).
🚨• Support:🚨
• Immediate: 110,050 (first orange line).
• Next: 109,484 and 108,704 (clustered support levels).
• Deeper: 108,250-107,100 (potential panic low, aligning with the August 23 bottom).
🚀Entry, Exit, and Stop-Loss Suggestions
Given the bearish trend and breakdown, a short-selling strategy seems aligned with the current momentum. Here’s a potential plan:
🚨Entry🚨
🚀• Short Entry: Enter a short position around the current price of 111,187.89 or on a retest of 111,600-112,000 if price pulls back to test the broken purple box as resistance. A confirmation could be a bearish candlestick (e.g., engulfing or shooting star) at this level.
🚀• Rationale: The breakdown below the trendline and consolidation zone suggests continued selling pressure. A retest of resistance offers a high-probability entry with better risk-reward.
Exit (Target)
🚀• Take-Profit Level 1: 110,050 (first support level). This is ~1,138 points below entry, offering a reasonable initial target.
🚀• Take-Profit Level 2: 108,704 (next support cluster). This is ~2,484 points below entry, suitable for a larger move if momentum persists.
🚀• Rationale: These levels align with the annotated orange support lines and the measured move from the purple box breakout (111,200 - 800 = ~110,400, with further downside to 108,000+).
🚨Stop-Loss🚨
🚀• Stop-Loss Level: Place a stop-loss above 112,200 (just above the purple box high of 112,000). This is ~1,012 points above the entry at 111,187.89.
🚀• Rationale: This level invalidates the bearish setup if price reclaims the consolidation zone, indicating a potential reversal or false breakdown.
Risk-Reward Ratio
🚀• Entry at 111,187.89, Stop at 112,200, Target 1 at 110,050: Risk = 1,012 points, Reward = 1,138 points, Ratio ≈ 1:1.1.
🚀• Target 2 at 108,704: Reward = 2,484 points, Ratio ≈ 1:2.5. This provides a favorable risk-reward, especially for Target 2, which aligns with the broader downtrend.
🚀🚀Alternative Long Scenario (Lower Probability)
If you’re bullish and believe the green arrow indicates a bounce:
• Entry: Buy on a bounce from 110,050, confirmed by a bullish candlestick (e.g., hammer or engulfing).
• Exit: Target 112,000 (purple box resistance) or 113,000 (trendline retest).
• Stop-Loss: Below 109,484 (~600 points risk).
• Rationale: This is less likely given the breakdown, but a support hold could signal a reversal. Risk-reward would be ~1:2 for the 112,000 target.
Suggested Strategy
Given the current bearish momentum and chart structure, I recommend a short position with the following:
• Entry: 111,187.89 (now) or 111,600-112,000 on a retest.
• Target 1: 110,050 (partial profit).
• Target 2: 108,704 (full position exit).
• Stop-Loss: 112,200.
• Position Sizing: Risk no more than 1-2% of your capital per trade, adjusting lot size based on the 1,012-point stop-loss.
Additional Notes
• Trend Confirmation: Monitor for a retest of 111,600-112,000. If it holds as resistance, the short thesis strengthens.
• Volatility: Expect sharp moves; use tight stops and consider scaling out at targets.
• Timeframe Context: This is a 1h analysis. Check higher timeframes (e.g., 4h or daily) for alignment—bearish on 1h suggests potential weakness on larger scales too.
🚨 Limitations: Without volume or indicators, this is speculative. Real-time news (e.g., macro events, Bitcoin ETF flows) could alter the outlook. If needed, I can search for updates—let me know.
