The Federal Reserve has made it quite clear this time, following a path of gradual easing.

A small rate cut in September is basically a given; the key will be how things progress afterwards, which depends on employment and inflation.

Waller's meaning is also quite straightforward:

In September, a rate cut of 25 basis points is highly likely, just to open the door.

If economic data continues to be soft, especially if employment struggles and inflation continues to drop, there could be further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months.

But a one-time cut of 50 basis points? There's no attitude for that at the moment; he prefers to take it slowly.

The core issue is non-farm payrolls; if the data continues to disappoint, the Federal Reserve might use their knife more heavily.

So right now, it's a defensive easing: on one hand, there's concern about the economy stalling, and on the other, fear of overdoing it and reigniting inflation.

The rate cut in September is pretty much a done deal; it's not impossible to have 1-2 more cuts before the end of the year, depending on the data that follows.