ETH is forming a megaphone pattern on the weekly frame, indicating the potential for a breakout towards $10,000 if decisively breaking the $5,000 and $5,100 liquidity-rich resistance.
The multi-year uptrend remains feasible, but short-term volatility, false breakouts, and dense selling pressure may occur before the trend continues to expand. Risk management around $5,000 is key.
MAIN CONTENT
The weekly megaphone pattern targets $10,000, but confirmation requires breaking above $5,000 with volume.
The $5,000–$5,100 range is a liquidity 'suction' point, which could trigger the liquidation of about $5 billion in short positions.
Failure to hold above $5,000 could pull ETH back to $3,500 or $3,000, but the long-term uptrend structure remains positive.
What does the megaphone pattern on the ETH chart indicate?
A megaphone (broadening formation) is a structure with gradually rising highs and gradually falling lows, indicating an expanding volatility range. Successfully breaking resistance often leads to strong breakouts, but lack of momentum could reverse the trend.
Analyst Jelle emphasizes the megaphone pattern on ETH's weekly frame, with a target expansion to $10,000 if decisively broken. This pattern reflects a fierce supply-demand dispute, often needing confirmation by increased trading volume and strong weekly closing candles above key resistance areas to avoid false breakouts. Source: Jelle on X; chart: Cointelegraph/TradingView.
Why is the $5,000 area important resistance?
$5,000 is currently the nearest resistance. Sustained breaking above this area is often a confirming signal of the trend, as there is a lot of liquidity and stop-loss orders from the sellers above.
According to CoinGlass, expanding positions above $5,000 could trigger about $5 billion in accumulated short position liquidations, creating a "chain reaction" pushing prices further due to the compression – expansion effect of leverage. This is also the market area waiting to test the strength of buyers. Source: CoinGlass Liquidation Map.
What is the liquidity significance of the $5,100 level?
$5,100 is noted as a dense sell wall, acting as a liquidity 'magnet' where short stop orders are concentrated.
Trader Merlijn believes that $5,100 "is the kind of price level whales dream of" due to high liquidity density, easily creating a strong sweep that wipes out over-leveraged short positions before the price decides its next direction. Source: Merlijn on X.
"Be the hunter, not the prey."
– Merlijn, cryptocurrency trader, 2025, source: X (https://x.com/MerlijnTrader/status/1960703862341325012)
If ETH does not exceed $5,000, what scenarios could occur?
Failure to exceed $5,000 could pull the price back to the 12-week SMA around $3,500 or the lower support of the pattern at $3,000, coinciding with the 25-week SMA.
These are dynamic support zones that help 'release heat' from leverage, reinforcing the accumulation base for the next bullish leg. However, volume confirmation is very important: weak participation often increases the risk of a false breakout. Investors should pay attention to the weekly close, volatility band width, and the leverage position in derivatives to assess the quality of the breakout or correction.
Can ETH's uptrend last for many years?
Jackis believes ETH is "extremely positive in the coming years," as the price has exited a 4.5-year organizational accumulation zone, signaling a new structural expansion phase.
According to Jackis, the previous 4-year cycle ends in December 2024, opening a new bullish cycle. However, medium-term fluctuations may occur as ETH has been repeatedly rejected at historical highs and is challenging the sixth diagonal resistance line. History shows that these levels are often broken after several attempts, but to be sustainable, spot cash flow support is needed rather than relying solely on derivatives. Source: Jackis on X.
What is ETH's correlation with BTC and what are the implications?
Despite ETH having an outperforming phase, its correlation with BTC remains high, averaging above 0.8 over the past 5 years according to Ecoinometrics.
High correlation implies that shocks from BTC can easily spill over to ETH, especially around major macro milestones or significant liquidity events. This underscores the importance of monitoring BTC momentum when assessing ETH's risk, especially in areas with many stop orders and dense sell/buy walls. Source: Ecoinometrics on X.
"ETH is performing better than BTC in terms of price, but the correlation tells a different story. Over the past 5 years, the correlation of ETH with BTC averaged above 0.8 and is still around that level now."
– Ecoinometrics, market analysis platform, 2025, source: X (https://x.com/ecoinometrics/status/1960732584998289768)
Why is volume confirmation and risk management crucial?
Volume is the "testimony" for breakouts. Breakouts without agreeing cash flow are often easy to reverse.
With the megaphone, the expanding volatility range makes false breakouts occur more frequently. Therefore, risk management through scenario planning around $5,000–$5,100, using disciplined stop-loss orders and monitoring leverage position deviations is necessary. CoinGlass's liquidation map suggests that price reactions could be fierce when hitting liquidity pockets, especially when leverage usage rates are high and funding rates are out of sync.
Comparison table of major technical scenarios
Scenarios around $5,000–$5,100 help shape risk management strategies and volatility expectations.
Scenario Key Signal Target/Threshold Risk Source/Related Breaking above $5,000 with volume Weekly candle closing above $5,000, increasing volume Liquidity suction towards $5,100, expanding towards $10,000 Quick profit-taking, reversal if volume weakens Jelle, Cointelegraph/TradingView; CoinGlass Sweeping $5,100 then retracting Liquidity spike, liquidating shorts ~ $5 billion Short-term correction, re-accumulation above $5,000 False breakout if cash flow is not sustained Merlijn; CoinGlass Failure to hold above $5,000 Rejected, weak volume $3,500 (12-week SMA), $3,000 (25-week SMA) Medium-term fluctuations, leverage sweeps Technical analysis on the weekly frame
Frequently asked questions
What does the megaphone on ETH's weekly chart suggest?
The pattern signals expanded volatility and the potential for a breakout when breaking resistance. For ETH, the technical target could aim for $10,000 if it breaks above $5,000 with volume confirmation. Source: Jelle; Cointelegraph/TradingView.
Why is $5,100 dangerous for the shorts?
This is a dense liquidity pocket where short stop orders are concentrated. Hitting this area easily triggers the liquidation of about $5 billion, pushing prices to fluctuate significantly. Source: CoinGlass; comment from Merlijn.
If rejected at $5,000, where is the nearest support?
The $3,500 (12-week SMA) and $3,000 (25-week SMA) areas are important dynamic supports to absorb corrections and re-accumulate. Source: technical analysis.
Is ETH completely decoupling from BTC?
No. Ecoinometrics states that the average ETH–BTC correlation is above 0.8 over the past 5 years, so shocks from BTC still significantly affect ETH. Source: Ecoinometrics on X.
Is the multi-year uptrend still valid if there is a short-term correction?
Yes. Jackis believes the larger timeframe picture remains positive after exiting the 4.5-year accumulation zone, although medium-term fluctuations may occur. Source: Jackis on X.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/eth-tang-dai-han-huong-10-000-usd/
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