According to analysts from JPMorgan, the current price of Bitcoin is "too low" compared to gold, as its fluctuation has fallen to a historically low level; the volatility of Bitcoin has dropped from around 60% at the beginning of the year to about 30% currently, reaching a record level; therefore, the fair value of Bitcoin is around $126,000, and this target should be reached by the end of the year. Analysts indicate that the accumulation of capital by companies, capital flows directed by indices, and the decrease in volatility have together increased the investment value of Bitcoin. Lower volatility facilitates capital reallocation by institutional investors, and the risk-adjusted valuation of Bitcoin and gold is now closer than ever. Analysts state that the volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold has fallen to 2.0 - the lowest level ever recorded - meaning that in the current setup of investment portfolios, the risk capital consumed by Bitcoin is twice that of gold. On this basis, for Bitcoin's market capitalization of $2.2 trillion to match about $5 trillion of private investment in gold, its market capitalization would need to increase by about 13%, meaning the theoretical price should reach $126,000. Analysts also emphasize that this gap has evolved, decreasing from $36,000 above this fair value level at the end of 2024 to about $13,000 below today, indicating that Bitcoin still has upside potential.
