🚨🚨🚨 BREAKING 🚨🚨🚨
The market expects the FED's TERMINAL RATE to be around 3%
This is KEY for the SP500 and #Bitcoin, let me explain why
What is the terminal rate?
▫️It is the level to which interest rates are expected to reach during the current cycle of cuts
▫️It is not just the next move of the FED, but where THE CYCLE OF CUTS ENDS
▫️Today the market discounts that the FED will cut to 3%, meaning 5 CUTS of 0.25% each
Why does it matter?
▪️ Bitcoin benefits from an environment with declining rates and more liquidity
▪️Additionally, the FED seems to be cutting rates with CORE CPI inflation above 3%.
▪️The ONLY TIME something like this happened was in 1991 and the result was a HISTORIC mega bull market in the SP500
▪️When the FED waited between 5 to 12 months between cuts, the SP500 was higher 12 months later 10 out of 11 times this occurred
▪️The average increase was +12.9%
▪️If they cut in September, the cut will have taken 9 months since the last cut
▪️If it cuts near market highs, the SP500 was higher 100% of the time 12 months later
▪️The average increase is +14%
▪️Currently, those 2 conditions are met