A top analyst at Bloomberg has sounded the alarm on Bitcoin's extraordinary bull market, suggesting it may no longer be sustainable.
Mike McGlone has long been one of the most bullish voices in the cryptocurrency space, confidently predicting that BTC will reach $100,000 years before it happens.
He rightly believes that Trump played a significant role in bringing the world's largest cryptocurrency into the six-figure realm—especially since he adopted many BTC-supportive policies during his campaign.
But when studying Bitcoin's performance over the past 12 months relative to other asset classes, he reached a disconcerting conclusion: gold's returns have been much healthier. McGlone wrote:
Bloomberg Intelligence's senior commodity strategist speculates that we may be approaching a "bubble peak"—comparing it to the Great Depression of 1929 or the stock market crash that disrupted Japan's economy in 1989.
That said, some Bitcoin enthusiasts may be angered by McGlone's analysis. In a research report recently seen by Cryptonews, he believes that BTC currently has over 20 million competitors in the cryptocurrency space. Mainstream media would not hesitate to counter, stating that altcoins are completely incomparable.
Nevertheless, there are other data points that raise concerns—including how Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 index has approached historical highs over the past 48 months. More importantly, McGlone points out that charts show the total returns of the S&P 500 index have only closed negatively twice since 2008, indicating that traders may be experiencing high complacency.
Reading between the lines, McGlone draws a stark conclusion: the performance of the S&P 500 index from now until the end of the year may be key for Bitcoin and will determine whether the current bull market continues.
So, what do analysts currently think of the performance of this flagship index? Well, there does still exist a certain level of bullish sentiment for the last four months of 2025. Since the vast majority of companies in the S&P 500 exceeded earnings expectations throughout August, firms like UBS have raised their year-end targets to 6,600 points. Other banks have done the same—undoubtedly boosted by the prospect of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month.
Elsewhere, McGlone also sounded the alarm on Strategy—believing that if this highly leveraged company's stock continues to decline, the "crypto dominoes may fall."
The analyst also believes that Bitcoin is "very likely" to return to the $100,000 support level at some point soon—which marks a 20% pullback from its historical peak. All traditional definitions point to a bear market at this stage, but BTC has a record of bouncing back from such uncomfortable adjustments.
You might say McGlone is an outlier here. Many other analysts remain quietly optimistic that BTC still has room to rise—some analysts expect it to break through around $180,000 later this year.
However, due to Donald Trump's tariffs being intoxicating and the ongoing uncertainty of their impact on inflation, a jump of 62% from current levels is far from guaranteed.
Polymarket investors express confidence that 2025 will set a new historical high, but are adjusting their bets. Currently, only 59% believe BTC will break through $130,000 by the end of the year, down from nearly 85% two weeks ago. Whatever happens on New Year's Eve, don't get it wrong: there will be winners and losers.
