Many people have a misconception that as long as the Federal Reserve listens to Trump and starts to cut interest rates wildly, cryptocurrencies will enter a frenzied bull market. In fact, this view is incorrect.

The reason the dollar can maintain its position as the global reserve currency is not solely due to the size of the U.S. economy, but because of its institutional credibility; people believe it will not be arbitrarily manipulated by politics. Once the independence of the Federal Reserve is lost, the first to suffer is not anyone else but the U.S. stock market itself, and the credit of the dollar will also be directly discounted.

Stablecoins in the crypto space, like USDT and USDC, derive their underlying logic from the credit of the dollar. People are willing to hold them because they believe the dollar is truly redeemable. If the independence of the dollar is undermined, the foundation of these stablecoins will also be shaken.

Some believe that after Trump's intervention in the Federal Reserve, the monetary easing will be more aggressive, and the stock market and cryptocurrencies will surge. This may be true in the short term, but in the long run, it leads to credit overextension, U.S. debt cannot sustain, and the international status of the dollar will be shaken, ultimately resulting in dollar assets being nothing more than a house of cards. Those who fantasize about getting rich through this logic often end up losing everything.

If Trump really reaches into the Federal Reserve and causes it to lose its independence, becoming a puppet institution for Trump, then the nature of the situation is entirely different; it would undermine the very foundation of the entire U.S. financial system. #美联储降息预期