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At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, three major US data points will hit the market: unemployment claims are lower than expected, GDP growth has surged to 3.3%, and Canada’s current account is absurdly bad… Logically, this wave of data should be bearish for gold and silver, bearish for oil, and bearish for US stocks, causing the market to plummet like it was poked by a hornet's nest, right? But strangely, gold and silver only dropped by 0.5%, and US stock futures even rose by 0.2%—it’s like the calm before a storm, eerily unsettling.
Why is the market 'playing dead'?
Expectations have been exhausted: Over the past month, from Powell's speech to non-farm data, the market has already torn up the script of 'hard landing' for the US economy and switched to a performance of 'soft landing or even no landing.' Today's data is just adding some special effects to this show, but the audience (institutions) has already bought their tickets.