The crazier the market, the more you need to calmly look up and see the road — the 1-hour K-line of ETH is not a 'fortune-telling symbol', but a thermometer for the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Currently, ETH is oscillating around $4720, with a key resistance level at $4766 (Bollinger Band middle line) and a support level at $4630 (MA30 moving average). The shortening of the MACD green bars indicates a weakening of bearish strength, and the KDJ's J line has rebounded from the bottom and crossed above the K and D lines, forming a short-term 'golden cross', which usually suggests that bulls may counterattack.

There are indeed highlights in on-chain data: a large amount of ETH has been staked and locked up, and exchange balances have decreased by 30%, indicating that big players are stockpiling, reducing short-term selling pressure. But be careful — on-chain data is a 'lagging indicator'; a whale buying the dip does not mean an immediate surge, it could be a long-term layout.

As an analyst, I believe short-term signals need to be judged in conjunction with the larger trend. For example, in August last year, ETH also experienced a similar technical rebound, but at that time, it coincided with rising expectations for Fed interest rate hikes, and the rebound only lasted half a day before falling back to the starting point.

Core logic: The Cancun upgrade and Fed rate cuts are medium to long-term positives, but short-term prices are more influenced by sentiment and BTC trends. Never mistake a 'rebound' for a 'reversal'; going all-in can easily become cannon fodder.

If it breaks the support at $4630, the next strong support is around $4550; if it can break through $4766, the short-term target can be seen at $4860. It is recommended to operate in batches and avoid going all-in.

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