The XRP community is one of the largest cryptocurrency communities and is known for its strong and bold price predictions. Some of those predictions are merely hype, but there are other predictions based on detailed chart analysis.

One of the most followed voices in the community, EGRAG CRYPTO, has just shared a new long-term chart, presenting three possible scenarios for XRP in this cycle: bearish at $18, bearish at $27, or a breakout above $200.

Unlike many other predictions, EGRAG's work is built on historical price cycles and regression models that have tracked XRP's behavior for over a decade.

Regression Model and R-Squared Value

EGRAG's chart employs logarithmic linear regression combined with a 2-standard deviation channel. This creates a price band that XRP has adhered to in previous cycles.

An important indicator here is the R-Squared value of 0.84754, indicating a very close fit between the regression line and XRP's historical price data. In fact, this means that about 85% of XRP's historical price fluctuations can be explained by this model, providing high reliability as a forecasting tool.

What Does History Tell?

Looking back, XRP has exhibited three distinct behaviors at the upper edge of this regression channel:

- Touch: XRP has touched the upper band three times in previous cycles, confirming this as a strong technical target.

- Breakout: In one cycle, XRP not only touched the threshold but exceeded it by 570%.

- Retreat: In the 2021 cycle, XRP did not reach the upper boundary, dropping about 45%.

The chart also tracks the length of cycles. Cycle 1 lasted 39 bars (1,186 days), Cycle 2 lasted 53 bars (1,614 days), and Cycle 3 is currently ongoing with a similar structure. This repeating pattern further enhances EGRAG's analysis.

Another important detail is the 21 EMA line displayed in yellow on the chart. History shows that this line has served as a guide throughout the cycles, helping XRP find support during lengthy consolidation phases before major breakouts. The current cycle also shows that XRP is adhering to this average line, providing additional fit for the regression model.

Current Market Position and Targets

Currently, XRP is fluctuating around the midpoint of the regression channel, well below the upper boundary. From here, EGRAG outlines three possible scenarios:

- Destination: XRP rises directly to the upper band, pushing the price to about $27.

- Downturn (Drop of 45%): XRP did not reach the desired price, peaking at around $18.

- Breakout (Exceeding 570% of the target price): In the case of the strongest bullish scenario, XRP could suddenly surge to $200.

EGRAG also notes that because the regression line tends to rise over time, these targets could increase further if XRP takes time to reach them.

Final Words

For XRP holders, this situation is truly remarkable. Even the 'downturn' case at $18 still equates to a sixfold increase from the current price of around $3. A direct touch at $27 would yield a ninefold increase, while a case exceeding $200 would represent a 'once-in-a-lifetime' price surge.

EGRAG's analysis shows that long-term cycles of XRP can yield very different results - sometimes falling short of expectations, sometimes exceeding them. With the model showing such strong historical fit, the XRP Army will closely monitor whether this cycle brings a boost, a downturn, or a breakthrough to remember.

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