#BTC

# Positive US Data Suppresses Rate Cut Expectations

BTC/ETH May Face a Test of 'Liquidity'.

Rising Treasury Yields, Improving Unemployment Rate:

1. - 2 to 5-Year US Treasury Yields Rise at Least 2 Basis Points, Reaching Daily Highs<br>- Market Expectations for 'Two Rate Cuts This Year' Weakened

2. - Revised Annualized Q2 GDP Growth Rate: +3.3% (Initial Value 3.0%), Exceeding Expectations<br>- Initial Jobless Claims: Decrease Greater than Expected → Strong Labor Market

Analysis of Potential Risks in BTC/ETH Market in September

Tightening Liquidity Expectations → High-Risk Assets Under Pressure

BTC/ETH and other crypto assets are Highly Dependent on a Global Loose Liquidity Environment. If Market Expectations Shift from 'Two Rate Cuts' to 'Only One or Delayed Until December', It Will Lead to: Stronger Dollar, Rising Real Interest Rates; Investors Shifting to Fixed Income Assets (Such as US Treasuries), Pulling Funds from Risk Markets; Weakened Buying Momentum in the Crypto Market, Insufficient Upward Driving Force.

Market Becomes Cautious Before September FOMC Meeting

On September 18, the Federal Reserve Will Announce the Latest Interest Rate Decision, Market Focuses on Whether to Initiate a Rate Cut. Current Economic Data is Strong → Probability of a 50 Basis Point Rate Cut Decreases, or Only a 25 Basis Point Cut, or Even Skipped. Amidst This Uncertainty, Institutional Investors May Choose to Wait and See or Reduce Positions, Leading to Increased BTC/ETH Volatility but Indeterminate Direction.

Thus, Facing the Above Uncertainties, Some Whales Are Gradually Liquidating Positions for Risk Control.

BTC's Upward Channel Shows a Trend of Opening Up, but the Intent to Lure Buyers is More Obvious.

Caution is Required in Operations.