Technical current situation: Key range fluctuations, fierce struggle between bulls and bears!
Currently, BTC is in the core fluctuation range of 112,800 - 113,000, with dense resistance above at 114,000 - 114,500, and support below at 112,500, with stronger support at 111,000 - 110,000. From the chart pattern, BTC is currently operating within a 'box', and once it breaks in either direction, it will trigger a significant market movement!
If it breaks above 114,500, it will open a fast track to 115,000 or even 118,000;
If it breaks below 112,500, it may quickly test the key support at 110,000, or even further decline.
News catalyst: U.S. initial unemployment claims data tonight at 8:30!
The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 23 will be announced tonight at 8:30 PM (Beijing time). This is one of the key economic indicators that the Federal Reserve closely monitors and directly affects market expectations for interest rate cuts!
If the data is bullish (unemployment rises): Indicates economic slowdown, increasing the probability of Fed rate cuts → The U.S. dollar weakens, and the probability of BTC surging is high, likely to challenge 115,000!
If the data is bearish (unemployment decreases): Strong economy, delaying rate cut expectations → The U.S. dollar strengthens, BTC faces downward pressure and may break below the 112,500 support, testing 110,000!
Retail investor operation strategy: Two scenario response plans!
Scenario 1: Data is bullish (bullish outlook)
Breaking above 114,000 can chase long positions, target 115,000 - 116,000;
Set the stop loss below 112,500.
Scenario 2: Data is bearish (bearish outlook)
Breaking below 112,500 can consider shorting with small positions, target 111,000 - 110,000;
Strict stop loss above 113,500.
Iron Hawk's suggestion:
Tonight's market will be driven by data, and the technical side is ready to break out!
Bullish dream: 115,000
Bearish nightmare: 110,000
Retail investors must ensure risk control, seize the trend, and refuse to hold positions!