The crypto world will be sleepless tonight! Non-farm payroll data + interest rate cut expectations are explosive, will this wave turn the world upside down?
Tonight at 8:30 PM, the U.S. initial jobless claims data will be revealed, and the crypto world has already entered a 'combat readiness' state in advance — because this data directly affects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September (currently the market is betting 87.2% on a 25 basis point cut), and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy can turn the crypto market upside down!
In simple terms, if the number of initial jobless claims exceeds expectations, it indicates that the U.S. job market is deteriorating, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to cut rates to save the economy — a rate cut will devalue the dollar and loosen liquidity, and the crypto market, as a 'risk asset,' will see cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum being pushed up by capital.
Conversely, if the data is very good, the Federal Reserve may delay the rate cut, the dollar will continue to strengthen, and capital in the crypto market will be withdrawn, likely causing a market crash.
Negative data: The crypto market will be doused with cold water, capital will flee, Bitcoin may test key support, and altcoins will be dragged down.
Positive data: The dollar index will fall, the crypto market will explode, Bitcoin will challenge previous highs, altcoins will rotate for rebound, and it may even trigger a wave of contract liquidations.
Even if tonight’s data comes in, the Federal Reserve's 'drama' is not over — there are FOMC meetings on September 17 and October 29. If tonight's data confirms the rate cut expectation, it is highly likely that a rate cut will occur in September, and the crypto market will welcome a 'rate cut bull'; but if the data reverses, the subsequent policy uncertainty will exacerbate the volatility in the crypto market, making it even harder to predict.
Tonight, the crypto market is destined to be turbulent, whether it's a feast or a beating depends on this wave of data and the Federal Reserve's 'mood'! Get ready to witness history~
Super Brother will also follow up in real time, guiding fans on suitable entry points, pay attention to @加密超哥 , and don’t get lost in this round of bull market.
