The technical aspect shows an extreme convergence pattern:
BTC is currently quoted at $113,133, closely touching the upper Bollinger Band (113,257). The bandwidth has shrunk to 2,464 points, reaching a historical extreme, indicating a possible violent fluctuation of over 5,000 points within 24 hours.
Although the MACD shows a golden cross, the volume has significantly shrunk by 66%, resembling the divergence structure seen before the peak of the 2021 bull market.
Key positions: The 114,000 resistance level gathers $3.7 billion in short options; if the 111,000 support is lost, it may trigger the liquidation of 120,000 BTC collateral.
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Macroeconomic bearish factors are accumulating:
The Federal Reserve's hawkish remarks have suddenly strengthened, causing the dollar index to surge to 98.58, putting pressure on risk assets.
China's process of self-sufficiency in computing power is accelerating, which may drive up mining costs.
Institutional divergence is significant: BlackRock increased its holdings by 24,000 BTC, while Grayscale significantly reduced its holdings by 71,000 BTC. The scale of the long-short showdown in the CME options market exceeds $1 billion.
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Three possible scenarios for future trends:
① Breakout scenario (20%): A significant breakout above 114,000, targeting 117,500 (requires trading volume to expand to $100 billion).
② Consolidation washout (60%): A false breakout followed by a quick retracement to 111,000, clearing leveraged longs before moving up again.
③ Breakdown scenario (20%): Losing the 111,000 support and probing down to the 105,000 level.
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Operation suggestions:
Aggressive investors may consider lightly shorting around 113,500, with strict stop-loss set at 114,500 and a target of 111,200.
Conservative investors are advised to wait for the result of the 111,000 support test before considering entry, with a stop-loss set at 110,500.
Appropriate allocation to gold (current price $3,379/ounce) can be done for risk hedging.
Summary:
The current market is at a critical turning point, and volatility may sharply increase. Investors should strictly control their positions, avoid high leverage operations, and wait for a clear direction before making moves.
