One cannot only see the price fluctuations while ignoring the underlying capital flow. Recently, the sale of $ETH ETH mainly has two sources:
First, the competition for ETF funds.
At the beginning of August, Ethereum spot ETFs faced capital withdrawals for several consecutive days, with a net outflow exceeding 300 million dollars in a single week, which directly suppressed market sentiment.
However, by the end of August, the situation suddenly reversed, with over 600 million dollars flowing back in within two days, and the market immediately stabilized and stopped falling.
After Grayscale's ETHE transformed into an ETF, it has continued to experience outflows, with a cumulative scale exceeding 4 billion dollars, making it the largest "seller" in the market. However, don't forget that the total inflow of other ETFs is also close to 4 billion dollars, effectively offsetting this selling pressure.
Second, the wave of exits from on-chain staking.
Recently, the number of ETH exiting staking has reached a new high, around 800,000 to 900,000 coins, valued at nearly 4 billion dollars. Although unlocking does not equate to immediately dumping on the market, it indicates that there could be a batch of selling chips available at any time, which could exacerbate declines when faced with negative news.
Compared to BTC, ETH indeed faces greater pressure; breaking through new highs in one go is not so easy.
However, if ETF funds continue to flow in, short-term market conditions may still remain strong, possibly even surprising the market over the weekend.
This is the current state of ETH: there is selling pressure above, and funds are bottom-fishing at 4000-4300 below.