Since August, the crypto market has continued its strong momentum, with Bitcoin hitting a new historical high and Ethereum also experiencing significant price increases. As global liquidity remains loose, institutional confidence in allocation is rising, and crypto assets are at a critical juncture of policy, funding, and macro expectations. In this issue's column, HTX Research Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzes recent trends in the crypto market, focusing on liquidity trends, on-chain activity, and upcoming core data and policy releases.
Global liquidity easing continues, and institutional allocation willingness is increasing.
Global liquidity remained high at the end of August. StreetStats data shows that as of August 27, 2025, the M2 money supply of major global economies was approximately $95.116 trillion, setting a new historical high; the increase over the past three months reached 3.87%. This indicates that monetary supply continues to be loose in the short term, providing important support for Bitcoin's strength. Meanwhile, institutional position concentration has further increased. As of August 27, the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF held approximately 1.3 million Bitcoins, accounting for about 6% of the circulating supply; MicroStrategy purchased another 430 Bitcoins between July and August, bringing its total holdings to 629,376 Bitcoins, indicating that short-term volatility has not affected institutional long-term allocation demand.
Regulatory positive developments landed in early August and continue to ferment. On August 7, the U.S. President signed an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement plans to invest in Bitcoin and other alternative assets. This policy sparked discussions in the market about new Bitcoin wealth management products in late August. Considering that the fund scale managed by 401(k) plans is approximately $8.9 trillion, if only 1% of the funds are allocated to Bitcoin, it could bring nearly $89 billion in potential incremental demand.
On-chain indicators are short-term overheated, but structural risks are controllable.
In terms of on-chain data, although short-term indicators are overheated, the overall situation remains healthy. At the end of August, the MVRV-Z indicator was approximately 2.49, above the historical average, suggesting a potential short-term pullback risk; however, aSOPR was about 1.019, and NUPL was 0.558, indicating that both realized and unrealized profit levels remain stable, and the market is not excessively inflated overall.
Policy dividends continue to ferment, and macro data will set the market tone.
Upcoming macro data may also affect market sentiment. Preliminary estimates released by the U.S. Department of Commerce show that the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of real GDP in the second quarter was 3.0%, significantly higher than the -0.5% in the first quarter, mainly due to a sharp decline in imports, a rebound in consumer spending, and increased government expenditure. The market expects that the second revision value, to be released on August 28, may be adjusted down to around 3% or even 2.4%; if it is indeed revised down, it could strengthen easing expectations. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report for July, to be released on August 29, is seen as the last key inflation indicator before the FOMC meeting in September. Economists generally expect the core PCE year-on-year to slightly rise from 2.8% to 2.9%, with a month-on-month rate of about 0.3%, while the overall PCE year-on-year remains around 2.6%. If the data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts; if it falls short of expectations, it would be more favorable for Bitcoin.
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer or solicitation for any investment products.
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