Today's BTC 1-hour chart can be called a "bull-bear meat grinder". In the morning, three consecutive doji candles appeared near the $114,000 resistance level, while a "mysterious buy wall" emerged at the $111,000 support level — a certain whale address placed buy orders for 800 BTC in batches at $111,200, directly smashing the short sellers' calculations to pieces. More dramatically, at exactly 12 noon, Coinbase suddenly saw a massive transfer of 2,000 BTC. Although on-chain data shows that these coins were merely transferred from cold wallets to hot wallets, the market was still spooked by this "feigned attack", causing a $300 drop.
The most typical feature of the current chart is the "MACD divergence + shrinking volume" death combination. Although the yellow and white lines barely stand above the zero axis, the red bars continue to shorten, indicating that the bulls' offensive is becoming increasingly weak. In contrast, the OBV indicator has quietly flowed out an equivalent of 1,200 BTC from the morning until now, which sharply contrasts with the price stagnation — a typical bull "bluffing". However, it's worth noting that the key level of $112,500 is not only the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level but also the death cross of MA30 and MA60, and now it has become the arena for both sides to take turns performing.
The most explosive news in the market today is undoubtedly the CFTC suddenly unleashing a "triple regulatory strike": not only requiring all spot exchanges to report leveraged trading data within 72 hours but also specifically criticizing a leading platform for having "fake liquidity" issues. This heavy blow directly collapsed the futures price of Texas mining farms, leading to a brief 8% drop in overall network computing power. But just as the shorts were cheering, the Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Chang-yong, stated at a parliamentary hearing: "Stablecoins must be included in the banking system's regulation, but we will provide 10 billion KRW in low-interest loans for compliant projects." This "first a slap and then candy" operation caused the BTC premium rate for the KRW trading pair to surge from -2% to +0.8%. Not to mention the news from Hong Kong about the ETF tokenization pilot, where screenshots from internal testing at a traditional financial institution show that users can actually use BTC to subscribe directly for the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF. If this comes to fruition, it would truly be a milestone event for "digital currencies entering mainstream finance."
Currently, the market seems as calm as still water, yet beneath the surface, there are hidden surges. On-chain data shows that in the last 24 hours, although 120,000 addresses transferred BTC, 85% of those were small transactions, and large funds have yet to take significant action. Moreover, it's noteworthy that Grayscale's GBTC has seen a premium rate of around -12% for five consecutive days, contrasting sharply with MicroStrategy's continual accumulation — one side has institutions buying with real money, while the other side's trust products are discounted. This contradiction indicates that the market may be on the verge of significant change!
Do you remember that crash on March 12? At that time, the MACD was also entangled near the zero axis, and the volume shrank to a minimum, resulting in a certain mining pool suddenly transferring 20,000 BTC to exchanges, directly triggering panic selling. The current situation bears a striking resemblance to that time, but this time the bulls hold a "ETF tokenization" trump card. According to Cointelegraph, a family office in Hong Kong is already testing generating synthetic assets using BTC as collateral. If this innovative approach is adopted by mainstream institutions, the pricing power of BTC may indeed shift from the crypto world to Wall Street.
Therefore, the safest strategy now is to "let the bullets fly for a while longer" — keep a close eye on the $112,500 "bull-bear dividing line". If it breaks out with volume, wait for a pullback to lightly test long positions; if it effectively breaks down, remember to set your stop-loss at $110,800 (double support from previous low + integer level).
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