To this day, thinking back to that loss of 200,000 makes my heart tighten — it was the most unforgettable moment in my three years in the cryptocurrency world, during which I lost over a million in total.
At that time, a certain cryptocurrency was going viral with 'major good news,' and everyone in the community was shouting 'Doubling is imminent.' I knew that the 5-day line had already fallen below the 30-day and 60-day lines, but I was blinded by the 'good news' and rushed in with the fantasy that 'the market maker will pull the price up.'
As a result, in just three days, the cryptocurrency price plummeted by 30%, and the 200,000 in my account was swept away like a tide, leaving behind shocking loss figures.
It was also this time of 'massive loss' that made me completely see the truth of survival in the cryptocurrency world: chasing news and guessing the intentions of market makers is a dead end; what can truly save you is those moving averages I previously dismissed as 'too ordinary' and 'lacking technical content.'
I used to think that moving averages lagged and weren’t exciting, and that they were less direct than 'insider information,' but it wasn’t until I lost real money that I realized those seemingly mundane moving averages hold the most authentic trend signals of the market.
Later, by mastering the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, I not only gradually filled in the loss of over a million but also made several million more.
Looking back at the cryptocurrency world now, 90% of people are still repeating the mistakes I made years ago: staring at various 'good and bad news' every day, chasing highs and cutting losses, with their accounts getting thinner, yet always blaming 'bad luck'; another 9% are obsessed with watching the market makers’ movements,
studying 'main force capital flows,' only to repeatedly buy at high positions and become the chives harvested by market makers; only 1% of people calmly focus on trading with moving averages, neither greedy nor anxious, quietly making money.
In fact, you don’t need many moving averages; three is enough, but you must understand their 'division of labor' to allow each line to play its role.
The 5-day moving average is the 'short-term alarm': it reacts the fastest, changing direction as soon as there is a price fluctuation, effectively reminding you of short-term trend changes.
But looking solely at the 5-day moving average can easily cause panic — for instance, an occasional pullback might cause the 5-day line to turn downward, and if you act blindly at that moment, it's easy to miss the rhythm. Therefore, the 5-day line must be viewed in conjunction with the other two lines.
The 30-day moving average is the 'trend referee': it represents the medium-term trend and can distinguish whether the current market is in an upward or downward channel. I later established an iron rule for opening orders: as long as the 30-day line hasn’t 'nodded' (i.e., hasn’t shown an upward trend), no matter how enticing the market is, I will never enter.
For instance, there was a time when a certain mainstream cryptocurrency surged past the 5-day line, and people in the community were already shouting 'It’s going to double,' but the 30-day line was still horizontal. I decisively reduced my position, and the next day the cryptocurrency price dropped by 20%, while those around me who chased the price were all trapped, and I avoided disaster thanks to the 'referee' role of the 30-day line.
The 60-day moving average serves as the 'bottom line guardian': it is the 'ballast' of the long-term trend. As long as the 60-day moving average is not breached, even the largest pullback is just short-term fluctuation, no need to panic; but once the 60-day moving average is breached, it indicates a reversal of the long-term trend, and you must decisively exit.
There was a time when Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, and both the 5-day and 30-day lines showed a turn, but the 60-day line remained steady upward. I held my position, and later, indeed, a rebound came; while those who panicked and cut losses when the 5-day line turned could only watch the market warm up.
The combination of these three lines is more reliable than any 'insider information' or 'market maker analysis.' However, in the cryptocurrency world, the hardest part isn’t understanding moving averages, but controlling your hands.
I have a friend who once saw a certain cryptocurrency's 5-day and 30-day lines intertwining and thought, 'After the fluctuations, it will surge; I can take a gamble.' He ignored my advice and rushed in, resulting in a loss of over 200,000 before he cut his losses.
I told him long ago: entering the market when the moving averages aren't aligned and the trend isn't clear is like giving away money — the market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is patience to wait for signals.
After seven years of ups and downs in the cryptocurrency world, I now only believe in one saying: 'Don’t compete with moving averages; they know the market better than you.' True experts never calculate 'Will it rise tomorrow?' but only look at 'Have the moving average signals arrived?' When the signal arrives, execute strictly; when the signal hasn’t arrived, patiently wait.
Now when I train students, the first thing I do is have them stick the phrase 'Trust the moving averages, don’t trust yourself; wait for signals, don’t bet on the market' on their trading screens — if you can endure the loneliness of waiting for signals and control your impulsive hands, you have already beaten 99% of people.
If you are also tired of chasing news and guessing the market makers’ intentions, and want to establish a foothold in the cryptocurrency world with solid skills, you might as well pay attention to @趋势猎手老金 . I don't teach the gimmick of 'getting rich overnight,' but guide you to understand moving average logic and master trend judgment, transforming from 'blindly following the crowd' to 'rational trading.'
After all, in the cryptocurrency world, no matter how good the method is, if you don’t execute, it’s useless; even if the signals are accurate, if you can’t control your impulses, it won’t help — only those willing to learn and execute can walk steadily and earn over the long term.