Recently, I've seen many people discussing how high ETH could go in the future. Today, let's also estimate (and perhaps contradict) how much Ethereum could reach by the end of the year.
Let's first look at some remarks from certain big names:
1. Vivek Raman, founder of Etherealize, said in an interview that Ethereum will eventually reach 700,000 USD. He previously worked on Wall Street for over 10 years before transitioning from traditional finance to crypto, and his current company is also dedicated to the application of Ethereum in traditional finance.
2. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, stated in an interview on August 26 that the shift in U.S. regulation, Wall Street's move towards on-chain infrastructure, and institutional demand transmitted through public 'crypto treasury bonds' set the stage for a significant repricing in the fourth quarter. 'In the short term, you know, ETH should rise to 5,500 USD in the coming weeks,' Lee said, adding that by the end of the year, ETH 'should be close to 10,000 to 12,000 USD,' as annual cryptocurrency gains usually occur in the fourth quarter.
Here, he mentioned an interesting concept that I find quite intriguing: the value of Ethereum held per share.
When Bitmine first started... the value of Ethereum held per share was only 4 USD,” he used July 8 as a baseline to explain.
As of August 24, we currently hold Ethereum valued at 39.84 USD per share... Therefore, the reason we hold 10 times the amount of Ethereum is that Bitmine is actively leveraging the capital market and attracting institutional investor interest to increase the amount of Ethereum held per share.
Currently, Bitmine's stock price is 46 USD, with a market value of 8 billion USD. I checked the value of BMNR; the earnings per share is -2.88 USD, and surprisingly, there are only 7 employees.
So what does Bitmine do? From the name, it's clear that it is a mining company focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Its core business is self-operated Bitcoin mining, third-party equipment hosting, and the sale and rental of mining machines, so it really doesn't require a lot of people; just a few are needed to maintain the operation of the mining machines.
So how much ETH does Bitmine currently hold? On August 26, Bitmine and Sharplink began buying aggressively again, with Bitmine purchasing 190,000 and Sharplink 56,000. They were also buying on August 19. It seems these two companies are competing in acquiring ETH, which has led to a sustained price for ETH.
Currently, Bitmine holds 1.71 million ETH, calculated at the current price of 4500, the total value exceeds 7.8 billion. As we saw above, the market value of BMNR is only 8 billion, with each share holding ETH valued at 49 USD, which already exceeds its stock value.
In comparison to MicroStrategy, which currently has a market value of 96 billion and 263 million circulating shares, holding 630,000 BTC valued at 710 billion (based on the current price of 113,000 USD), with a per-share value of 270 USD for BTC. Meanwhile, MSTR's stock price is 342 USD, so comparing this, either Bitmine's stock price is undervalued, or Ethereum has risen significantly.
In fact, the current risk for Bitmine is quite high, as most of its value is supported by ETH (its core business has been losing money for years). If the price of ETH drops, the stock price will also drop. In fact, BMNR's stock price has already dropped significantly; it was 160 USD on July 3, and now it's only 46 USD.
Current progress of ETH strategic reserves
In an article on August 11, I saw this data (Four-Year Endgame Moment - Cryptocurrency Market Data Analysis!), total reserves are 2.73 million, and in just 20 days, there has been an increase of 1.6 million, with a purchase/issuance volume of 34.7; previous data showed it was 4. They are buying like crazy!
Based on an increase of 2 million pieces per month, how many can be bought by the end of the year? In about 4 months, that would be approximately 8 million pieces?
Currently, Bitmine's share is 40%. So, by the end of the year, can Bitmine buy 40% * 800 = 3.2 million pieces? Assuming the price remains at 4500 without any increase, it would require 14 billion USD. At present, it seems they don’t have that much money. On August 25, they mentioned needing to raise 2 billion USD for purchases, so even if Ethereum increases later, in the best-case scenario, it would just double, and raising another 2 billion would be about right, meaning a future purchase range of 4 billion to 5 billion seems reasonable.
Considering purchases from other companies, the overall buying could reach about 10 to 15 billion.
Next, looking at the ETF buying, the total buying statistics for Ethereum ETF show a super ascending trend with a 45° angle, with an increase of 18 billion in funds over the year.
So let's estimate an annual increase of 4.5 to 6 billion.
Therefore, by the end of the year, it is estimated that the company’s purchases, along with ETF buying, could result in an increase of around 20 to 30 billion. Currently, the market value of ETH is 500 billion USD, which theoretically would mean an increase of about 5%. However, considering other market funds and enthusiasm, this round of ETH strategic reserves has only resulted in a purchase of 20 billion USD, pulling ETH from about 2500 to around 4500. So I estimate that it could at most double, since the higher it goes, the more funds are needed. Therefore, 6000 to 8000 seems to be almost the limit.
Another major benefit by the end of the year is the Fusaka upgrade (expected in November 2025). The upgrade in May 25, Pectra, also led to a significant surge, so this upgrade in November is relatively important.
Of course, the above is just my rough calculation based on some data; the actual price needs to be viewed in the context of market conditions. I definitely hope ETH goes as high as possible and wish the coin price could contradict expectations because we are all E Guardians.
