【Can TREE be chased after an 80% surge? This article teaches you to use the 'Volume Map' for precise timing】
Quick Overview
Against the backdrop of a net outflow of 210 million U in 24-hour contracts and a net inflow of 8 million U in spot trading, TREE has deviated 76% from MA200 in the short term, and RSI 93 has entered the historical extreme zone; the POC around 0.41 has become the value anchor contested by both bulls and bears. If there is a retracement to the 0.47-0.49 LVN with a decrease in volume, a second surge can be gambled on, with a risk-reward ratio of approximately 2.6.
Key Range Structure
1. Value Anchor Zone (POC): 0.408-0.413, with a transaction of 826 million U in the past two weeks, Up/Down ≈ 1.5, buying pressure still prevails.
2. High Volume Buffer Zone (HVN):
• 0.393-0.400, transaction of 603 million U, serves as the first support below.
• 0.414-0.418, transaction of 778 million U, serves as the first resistance above.
3. Low Volume Gap (LVN): 0.47-0.49, with only 129 million U traded, prices can quickly traverse, suitable for breakout or retracement trades.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Zone: 0.314-0.490, current price of 0.56 has exceeded the upper boundary, at the edge of being overbought.
Momentum Verification
• Up Volume near POC is 59.6%, close but not reaching the 60% threshold; if Up Volume > 60% during a retracement to LVN, it will be viewed as a secondary confirmation for bulls.
• 24h contract positions increased by 61.5%, but the long-short ratio decreased from 2.14 to 1.27, indicating short-term bull overcrowding, beware of 'long liquidation'.
Market Cycle
Short-term: High position squeeze end, funding rate -2%, bulls need to pay short interest, indicating overheating.
Medium-term: If the 0.41 POC is lost, it will return to a range of 0.35-0.40 for oscillation.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: Directly chase long at current price of 0.56-0.57, stop loss at 0.532 (outside of HVN below), target 0.62 (2×ATR), risk-reward ratio 1.9.
Conservative: Wait for a retracement to the 0.475-0.485 LVN, if a decrease in volume + bullish line appears, enter to go long, stop loss at 0.468, target 0.535/0.62, risk-reward ratio 2.6.
Cautious: If it falls below 0.468 with an increase in volume, reverse to go short, stop loss at 0.485, target 0.41 POC, risk-reward ratio 2.3.
Risk Warning
1. If the price directly falls below 0.468, the bull structure will fail.
2. If the funding rate turns positive, bull replenishments may trigger a waterfall.
3. Sudden macro-regulatory changes or a market crash will amplify volatility.
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