1. Summary

$XRP is in a probing phase after pullback; short-term tends to recover but needs volume to confirm breakout above 3.10–3.20.

• Current price ~2.98; main support 2.82–2.83, nearby resistance 3.12–3.20.

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2. Analysis

Short-term technical: MA7 ~2.98 is around the price, MA25 ~3.00, MA99 ~2.98 — the 1H structure is slightly compressed; RSI(6) ≈46 — not overbought, still room for recovery; need 1H close with high volume to confirm.

Risk & on-chain: Ripple continues to execute monthly escrow releases (this month ~1B XRP) but most are managed/relocked; recent whale flows include both large sell-offs and accumulation — volatility may come from derivative cash flow/CEX inflows.

Sentiment/Fundamentals: institutional demand increases (CME futures open interest spikes) creating momentum but also increasing sensitivity to news and unlock events.

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3. Strategy

Momentum (aggressive)

  • Entry: buy when 1H close > 3.10–3.12 with increased volume (confirm breakout).

  • Stop-loss: SL = 2.76 (below major support area and safe buffer).

  • TP1 / TP2: TP1 = 3.20 (take profit partially), TP2 = 3.80–4.00 (expand if daily trend confirms).

  • Exit triggers: 1H close below 2.82 with high selling volume; large unlock event or inflow into CEX.

Conservative (swing)

  • Entry: wait for pullback to test the 2.82–2.88 area and enter when a reversal candle appears with increased volume.

  • Stop-loss: SL = 2.65 (below swing low).

  • TP1 / TP2: TP1 = 3.12–3.20, TP2 = 3.50 (take profit gradually according to momentum).

  • Exit triggers: failure to hold 2.82; large whale-to-exchange event or negative news regarding derivatives/escrow.