First, let's invite the comrades to look at the image. We will see one clear thing, the Top marketcap like $BTC is currently 2.222 trillion dollars. $ETH is 544 billion dollars, $XRP is 177 billion dollars,... a lot? Big?
So, when btc.d decreases, we still don't see any altcoin season anywhere? What is the reason? Let's look at the money flow chart; we will see BTC first, then ETH, then Large-cap,... then comes AltSeason...
Currently, on-chain data clearly shows that money is in Phase 2, flowing into ETH, and it is unclear when it will end. So, when btc.d decreases for a long stretch like the image, does that mean Big Large Cap, including ETH, benefits, right? Does ETH rising strongly mean btc.d decreases, right?
Hên doesn't think the phases in the image will be wrong, just that the timing is slightly different from previous cycles. Money is flowing into ETH, then other ETFs like $SOL, $SUI, $LINK, $DOGE, $ADA, $XRP,... American ETFs are appearing...
When enough money flows into ETH to take profits, then once again, money will continue to pour into other Big Large-cap assets outside of ETH, then to Large-cap, then Mid-Cap, Low-cap,...
So is there an altcoin season? If we look outside of BTC, there is, but it won't be as large as previous cycles, how much it is depends on which dips the money flows into first, it could be trend narratives (AI, RWA, DEFI,...)
So can it be x3, x5? According to Hên, getting x3, x5 from the bottom is quite easy. But the problem is that other people, like Hên, are also quite high up, and if not DCA, then it will be much harder to get back to profit. Right?
So is there a chance for x10, x15, x30? Hên thinks there still will be, it depends on the flow of money into the dips, into the large-cap assets that are trending,... Why does Hên think that way?
Consider the market cap of BTC at 2.222 trillion dollars, ETH at 574 billion and potentially rising to 1.2 trillion dollars. If 1 billion dollars from BTC or ETH flows into a large-cap with a market cap of 1 billion dollars, will it double? No, it will triple, quadruple, or quintuple, which is normal.
Why print so much USDT, USDC, but it doesn't increase much? Because it flows into BTC, ETH, and Big Large Cap; just look, all are hundred billion caps, so a few billion printed doesn't really go far?
The issue is that wealth and poverty have numbers; let's say suddenly, there’s a large-cap asset that has an ETF opened, money flows in, will it reach x5, x10? The closest example is looking at the Grayscale AI category, where only a few investors invested 3 million dollars into TAO, 3 million into NEAR,... ask yourself, TAO's market cap is 4 billion, NEAR's is 3 billion, does that amount mean anything?
So if 1 billion dollars flows into TAO or NEAR, how will it pump? I'm not fomoing, I'm just asking a question and answering it from my personal perspective! Whether it's right or wrong, I don't know!
The issue now is still waiting; low-cap assets pump and dump very quickly, and large-cap assets must also be waiting in line? The ETFs still have to wait too. Remember when the BTC ETF was approved, and the ETH ETF was approved, the money only flowed into BTC, a year later it started flowing into ETH, so other ETFs like SOL, ADA,... will need time, waiting in line!
Other large-cap assets also have to wait in line...
And asking which coin can increase a lot? Then who knows? Asking if there is an Altcoin Season like previous cycles? Hên thinks there isn't! But Altcoin is indeed happening differently; the lock has changed!
Be patient!
