💥 Bitcoin pullback alert! MVRV collapse, is the $100,000 support in jeopardy?
Recently, the market performance of Bitcoin [#BTC ] has made many investors' hearts race 📉. The MVRV indicator has fallen below the 365-day moving average (SMA365), which is usually a signal of weakening cycle strength and potential prolonged adjustments. In the short term, BTC is facing pullback pressure near $124,400, while whether the market can maintain support between $110,000 and $108,800 has become the most concerning issue for investors.
⚡ MVRV warning: Bitcoin adjustments may intensify.
#MVRV Ratio has fallen below the long-term average, indicating that investors' paper profits in the market are shrinking, and the resilience of the long-term trend has declined. From the high point of 2.77 in March 2024 to now, Bitcoin's momentum has significantly weakened after reaching a peak of $124,400 📉.
MVRV trend below the benchmark indicates an increased risk of long-term adjustment, but at the same time, we also see rising adoption and increasing institutional demand, making the market situation more complex. This means that although warning signals exist, capital inflows and demand can still provide some support 💡.
🔎 Support level observation: $110,000 defense line.
Latest market trend shows Bitcoin price has fallen to $110,600, breaking the key upward trend line ⛔. If the market cannot maintain a bullish structure, prices may further test around $108,800, or even approach $100,000.
RSI is currently at 40.27, close to the oversold area, indicating weak market momentum and fragile sentiment. Nevertheless, historical data shows that near these support levels, buyers may still provide defense, offering a rebound opportunity for prices 📈.
The key task for investors going forward is to observe whether the price can stabilize between $110,000 and $108,800, which will determine whether Bitcoin rebounds or continues to adjust.
💹 Capital flow suggests: Spot and futures are out of sync.
In the past 90 days, the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) of the spot market has shown alternating control, with recent trading days leaning towards selling. This phenomenon indicates that there is still significant pressure in the spot market, making a quick bullish reversal difficult in the short term ⚡.
When spot capital leans towards selling, even if a rebound occurs, it may be quickly reversed. On the other hand, ETF and institutional capital inflows still provide some support to the market, preventing a complete collapse of the overall trend. In the short term, Bitcoin's prospects are mixed:
Spot selling dominance → Difficulty in rebounding.
Institutional capital inflow → Provides some support.
Traders need to closely monitor whether buying power strengthens; otherwise, breaking resistance will become increasingly difficult.
📊 Long positions are high: Risks are accumulating.
According to Binance data, long positions account for 64.55%, shorts for 35.45%, and the long-short ratio is 1.82. This means that market bullish sentiment is evident but also conceals risks ⚠️:
Long positions are too high → If prices drop, it may trigger large-scale forced liquidations.
High leverage trading → Increases the risk of price volatility.
Sentiment is too optimistic → Prone to accelerated declines during high volatility periods.
In summary, although long positions are many, it does not mean safety; investors still need to be cautious.
🔑 Core conclusion: Maintaining key support is crucial.
The trend of Bitcoin is mixed, but there is still a chance for a rebound in the overall direction. Key factors are as follows:
Key support levels: $110,000 to $108,800 is the most important defense line in the current market 💎.
MVRV collapse: A reminder that the strength of the market cycle is weakening, increasing short-term adjustment risks.
Spot selling dominance: Short-term rebounds may be limited, and buying power needs to be observed.
Institutions and #etf capital: Still providing underlying support, boosting market vitality 💪.
If buyers can maintain key support, Bitcoin may usher in a new round of increases; conversely, breaking support will accelerate the adjustment and may test the psychological barrier of $100,000.
💡 Investment tips.
Focus on support levels: $110,000 to $108,800.
Observe the flow of spot funds and open interest in futures.
Cautiously control positions to avoid excessive leverage.
Scale-in positioning, buying low and selling high, leaving room for error.
Combine MVRV, RSI, and volume for multi-indicator judgment.
The Bitcoin market has never been simple. The collapse of MVRV, dominance of sellers, and high long positions remind us that market fluctuations and risks coexist. Meanwhile, institutional capital inflows and potential ETF approvals provide momentum for the market. If buyers can stabilize key support, we still have a chance to see the start of a new bull market.
📣 In summary: Bitcoin may be under pressure in the short term, but if key support holds, a rebound is still on the way; investors need to stay vigilant and seize opportunities to position at low levels; swing trading is the best strategy! #ETH走势分析
