Currently, market risks outweigh opportunities.
XRP's recent surge is one of the most promising times for the cryptocurrency market, but the asset is currently at a critical moment, and momentum may begin to wane. After experiencing a significant rise and breaking above $3.50, XRP subsequently fell back into a consolidation phase, with the current price centered around $3.00. The daily chart presents a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating that the market environment is becoming tighter, and the likelihood of a collapse is increasing.
The technical chart shows that XRP is in a delicate balance state. While the 200-day moving average (EMA) at $2.49 provides deeper support, XRP is still holding above its 100-day moving average (EMA) at $2.76. However, buyers are clearly losing momentum as they have consistently failed to break above $3.20. Although showing hesitation, the relative strength index (RSI) remains at a neutral level of 48, leaving room for further declines. If the price closes below $2.90, this structure may collapse, making XRP vulnerable to losses and potentially offsetting most of its recent gains.
Volume trends are exacerbating market caution. Since the rebound in July, trading activity has significantly slowed, and the lack of substantial capital inflow indicates that market interest is waning. If the symmetrical triangle breaks down without new buying pressure, market sentiment could shift from consolidation to correction.
However, the bigger story of XRP's recovery has not completely disappeared. Although a reversal is still possible, XRP remains far above its spring levels and has reclaimed the 200-day moving average for the first time in years, indicating its long-term resilience. However, when buyers cannot maintain higher highs, momentum-driven rebounds often stagnate, and XRP's current configuration seems to be one of those cases.
Bitcoin is being pushed
As September begins, market trends may depend on the technical levels that Bitcoin tests again. Bitcoin's current trading price is about $111,000, hovering dangerously above its 100-day moving average after reaching a peak of about $126,000 in early summer. Historically, this moving average has been both a strong resistance and support level, but charts suggest that its defense may be nearing its end. According to the daily candlestick chart, bears have taken dominance as Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to return to the $115,000-$116,000 range.
The current testing of the 100-day moving average has little room for error, and breaching the 50-day moving average has indicated that momentum is weakening. If Bitcoin cannot maintain this level, the next reasonable support level will be at the 200-day moving average, which is close to $103,800 and dangerously near the critical psychological level of $100,000. The lack of structural support for $100,000 in previous consolidation areas makes this level particularly concerning.
On the contrary, its support is weak, meaning that once it breaks down, stop-loss orders and leveraged long liquidations could lead to a rapid decline in the market. In this scenario, Bitcoin's price could quickly drop to around $90,000 before buyers step in. The relative strength index (RSI) reflects this weak trend, currently hovering around 41, marking the lowest level since spring. Recent rebounds have also shown declining volume, indicating that buyers are not acting decisively. In the absence of new demand, bearish momentum may persist.
On the other hand, if the price strongly rebounds and breaks above $115,000, it would reverse much of the bearish pattern and reopen the path for retesting levels above $120,000. However, bulls now need to provide evidence. In summary, Bitcoin is at a critical moment. When the 100-day moving average is breached, the market begins to fall towards the 200-day moving average, with $100,000 being the last line of defense. If this support level is broken, the market may experience a pullback more severe than most expect.
Ethereum will not forget $5,000
After several rounds of strong rebounds, Ethereum remains one of the best-performing stocks in the current market cycle, trading close to $4,600. Compared to many other mainstream cryptocurrencies that have experienced more severe pullbacks in recent weeks, ETH has avoided significant declines like those of Bitcoin and Solana. The price of Ethereum is expected to break through the $5,000 mark, with its strong resilience making it a strong contender for setting a new all-time high.
ETH uses the 20-day moving average as a dynamic support level on the daily chart, consistently forming higher lows since July. Since breaking through the key resistance level of $4,200, the asset has been consolidating at high levels with only minor pullbacks.
On the bullish side, momentum indicators are also performing well. Currently, the RSI is close to 61, indicating that the price trend is robust and not overly extended, with potential for further increases. According to the structural chart, ETH is expected to rise further, and after breaking through $4,800, the price could easily rise to $5,000 or even higher.
Ethereum's relative strength partly stems from the fact that, despite increased market volatility, it has not encountered significant pullbacks. ETH has been under sustained upward pressure, while altcoins like Solana and Dogecoin have shown weakness, and Bitcoin has faced significant resistance.
