'A day in the crypto world is like a year in the real world' — this saying was taken to the extreme by ETH yesterday! During the day, it held 4580 like a 'good baby,' but at midnight, it suddenly turned into a 'volatile brother,' plummeting straight from 4660 to 4465. How many people were awakened by mobile alerts, watching their floating profits turn into losses, and stayed awake until dawn without closing their eyes? This extreme market situation really can't be endured without a strong heart!
Act One: During the day, 4580 was 'locked,' and EMA200 became the strongest 'safety cushion.'
Yesterday morning, I was joking with everyone in the community: 'ETH has now firmly locked at 4580, as long as it doesn't break this level, we can hold it with peace of mind.' As a result, the daytime trend turned out to be exactly as I predicted! The price was firmly pinned above 4580 and slowly climbed towards 4600, with the technical aspect looking solid — the EMA200 moving average was steadily holding in the 4560-4570 range, and several pullbacks rebounded rapidly as if being 'held up by an invisible hand.' At that time, many fans commented, 'Finally, I don't have to stare at the screen; I can eat lunch in peace.'
Looking back now, the 'stability' during the day actually concealed two signals: on one hand, 4580 was repeatedly supported, indicating that funds were secretly accumulating; on the other hand, 'too stable a market often plummets easily' — this also laid the groundwork for the evening's plunge.
Act Two: U.S. stocks opened low and shook, ETH rebounded, confusing the 'early sellers.'
In the evening, when U.S. stocks opened low, ETH followed and 'shook,' quickly falling from 4620 to 4580. The community panicked instantly: 'Is it going to break 4500? I'll sell to protect my principal!' As a result, ETH didn’t give the shorts a chance and directly 'hit the brakes' at 4580, surging to 4660 by 9:40 PM, leaving those who sold early dumbfounded. One fan complained to me: 'I sold at 4600, watching it rise to 4660; my hands were red from slapping, and I regret it so much.'
This rebound also confirms one point: although the crypto market is affected by U.S. stock sentiment, as long as key support levels don't break, it has its own independent rhythm. Unfortunately, no one realized at the time that this was actually the last wave of frenzy before the 'plunge storm' at night.
Act Three: Midnight whale selling pressure warning, the market first holds then collapses with hidden tricks.
Just after midnight, a shocking piece of news exploded on-chain: the giant Cumberland transferred 22,289 ETH to Coinbase Institutional (worth over 103 million USD at the time)! Those in the know understand that such large transfers are often a precursor to selling, and ETH indeed responded by dropping 60 points, from 4660 to 4600.
Just when everyone thought the decline would continue, the market suddenly became 'strong' — the price quickly bounced back to 4640. I urgently reminded the community: 'The rebound indicates there are buyers below, but don't let your guard down; the whales haven't finished unloading, and there's a high probability they will still hammer down.' Sure enough, this drop was just an 'appetizer'; the real storm was still to come.
Act Four: At 2 a.m., a double blow, ETH plunged through 4500.
At 2 a.m., the plot completely reversed! ETH dropped like a kite with a broken string, falling from 4640 all the way down, with two 'black hands' directly stunning the market:
CEX funds are fleeing crazily: in the past 24 hours, 297,800 ETH flowed out, with Binance accounting for 148,700 and Coinbase Pro for 127,300 — funds withdrawing from exchanges is like draining the core water source of a reservoir; once liquidity decreases, prices naturally can't hold up.
NVIDIA's earnings report dampened spirits: originally, Q2 revenue exceeded expectations, which was good news, but the outlook for the third quarter was tepid. After-hours stock prices dropped by 5%, Bitcoin fell by 1.25%, breaking 111,000, and ETH collapsed, hitting a low of 4465. Many who bought at 4500 were instantly trapped with a loss of 135 points, anxiously asking in the community at dawn, 'Should I sell?'
Now the most critical: 4520 is the life-and-death line for bulls and bears; making the wrong move could lead to tears!
This morning, ETH slightly rebounded; it's now oscillating around 4510, but the technical aspect has already deteriorated — the daily strong structure has broken. Whether it can stabilize in the short term depends on whether 4520 can hold (it must close above 4520 on the 1-hour line to be considered effectively stable). This position is like 'the boundary stone in the middle of the battlefield'; whoever takes it will grasp the initiative.
Practical strategies for fans, clearly stating two factions; never operate blindly:
For the aggressive: light short near the current price of 4510, set stop-loss at 4530 (as long as it breaks 4520 and stabilizes, immediately stop-loss and exit), target first to look at 4400, and after breaking, then look at 4300. But it must be emphasized: position must not exceed 30%, don't go head-to-head with the market, and once stop-loss is triggered, don't hesitate.
For the conservative (afraid of being trapped): absolutely do not bottom fish now! Even if you see the low point at 4465, don't reach out; wait until the 1-hour line firmly stands above 4520 and the volume expands (1-hour volume exceeds 80 million USD), then try a small long position. Otherwise, it's better to miss out than to become the 'bag holder.'
There's another important signal to watch: the whale that previously 'sold Bitcoin to buy ETH' has been quiet recently. If he continues to accumulate ETH, it may support the market; but if he starts selling ETH as well, 4400 may not hold.
Let me say one thing: don't let emotions mislead you; signals are more reliable than feelings.
I was also awakened by the market late last night, but I didn't panic while looking at the screen — because I kept reminding myself, 'Don't chase shorts on a rapid decline, and don't chase longs on a rapid rise.' There has never been a '100% certain market' in the crypto world, only 'certain signals.' The manipulators love to harvest from those who operate based on feelings; what we need to do is wait for signals and follow strategies, not go with emotions.
If you enjoy 'breaking down the market into stories and explaining strategies in plain language,' follow me! If ETH breaks 4400 or stabilizes at 4520, I will shout in the community at the first opportunity to help you avoid pitfalls and seize rebound opportunities!
Loneliness is a cover for weakness. Click on my avatar, let top strategies guide you — ambition deserves crazy returns!
