Will there be a decline?

Last night, a pattern emerged: 'the dollar declines, everything rises.'

First, yesterday's rise was a short-term choice by the market that calmed down after 'Trump fired Cook'—betting that interest rate cuts will come soon. However, yesterday's closing is not very significant, as it occurred before 'waiting for major events,' awaiting Nvidia's earnings report. After the US stock market closed, Nvidia's earnings report first revealed that data center sales fell short of expectations, causing its stock price to drop by 4% at one point, later narrowing the decline to 2%.

Second, Nvidia's earnings report is actually good, but there was no 'explosive surprise': Nvidia's valuation is already very high, and the market's requirement for it is 'to keep exceeding expectations.' The data center has failed to exceed expectations twice in a row, leading investors to worry: is the peak of AI capital expenditure slowly coming to an end? Even if it meets market expectations, its stock price may still decline because the market's demands are too harsh—'not just good, but better,' resulting in many analysts preparing to take profits.

Third, at the opening today, the dollar is down, US stock futures are down, and oil is also declining. But this is just a 'rehearsal'; the real direction will wait until tonight when US funds enter the market. If US investors choose to 'sell Nvidia and lock in profits,' it may lead to a collective adjustment in technology and momentum stocks.

Fourth, A-shares became an exception in the 'everything rises' scenario, indicating that the sentiment of domestic investors is clearly out of sync with expectations of overseas liquidity. The Shanghai Composite Index experienced its largest single-day drop since April 7—how Chinese investors face this decline will determine their future fate. If investors choose to 'hold firm or even increase positions during the decline,' this market trend could continue; if they choose 'panic selling,' it may lead to a self-reinforcing effect, and the market will reverse.

Both domestic and international markets are waiting for the test of fate.