The current ETH price is around 4615, with intense long and short battles! Based on a comprehensive technical analysis and market sentiment, here is today’s market interpretation and operational ideas, hoping to provide reference for everyone~ (Note: The following analysis is just personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice!)
✨ 1. Current market status
· ETH has fallen from its historical high of over 4950 to now fluctuating in the range of 4310-4680.
· Market sentiment is neutral, the overall trend is still greatly influenced by Bitcoin, need to closely monitor whether BTC can hold the support at 108,000.
· Today's key: Can it break through the pressure zone of 4630-4680, or will it break below the support at 4550.
✨ 2. Key technical points (the following is a compilation of multiple analysts' viewpoints)
· Current price: 4615 (near the middle track of the 4-hour BOLL, a short-term turning point for bulls and bears)
· Short-term resistance: 4630-4680 (only possible to test after breaking)
4700+）
· Strong resistance: 4800-4900 (previous high area, heavy selling pressure)
· Short-term support: 4500-4520 (4-hour lower track + psychological level)
· Strong support: 4350-4400 (daily middle track + Fibonacci retracement level)
· Deeper support: below 4300 (if broken, it may test 4200 or even 4000)
✨ 3. Operational strategy reference Scenario 1: Upward breakout (probability about 45%)
· If it breaks above and holds 4630, you can enter long positions lightly or intervene when it dips to 4580-4600 without breaking.
· Target 1: 4680-4700
· Target 2: 4800-4900
· Stop loss: below 4550
Scenario 2: Downward breakout (probability about 40%)
· If it breaks below 4550, you can lightly pursue short positions or intervene when it rebounds to 4620-4650 under pressure.
· Target 1: 4480-4500
· Target 2: 4350-4400
· Stop loss: above 4680
Scenario 3: Range fluctuation (probability about 15%)
· If it fluctuates between 4480-4680, you can sell high and buy low.
· Long position: try going long after stabilizing at 4490-4510, target 4620-4650, stop loss below 4450
· Short position: try going short after being pressured at 4650-4680, target 4520-4550, stop loss above 4710
✨ 4. Risk Reminder
· Strictly control position size, do not operate with heavy positions, suggest keeping single position size within 5%-10% of total capital.
· Use high leverage cautiously to prevent the risk of liquidation from spikes.
· Pay attention to the Bitcoin correlation effect (if BTC loses the support at 108,000, it may drive ETH further down).
· News focus: Fed's interest rate cut expectations in September, Ethereum ETF capital flow, etc.
✨ 5. Summary and Suggestions
· Short-term trend is neutral with a tendency to fluctuate, direction depends on the resistance at 4630 and support at 4550.
· Optimal strategy: lean towards range trading (high sell low buy between 4480-4680), follow the trend after breaking the range.
· Ideal entry for long positions: 4450-4500 (low risk) or enter after breaking 4630 (high risk)
· Ideal entry for short positions: 4650-4700 (low risk) or pursue after breaking below 4550 (high risk)
⚠️ Please note: The market changes rapidly, the above analysis is based on data before August 28, please make sure to adjust strategies in real-time based on market dynamics and manage risks!
💡 Investment has risks, enter the market with caution! Wishing everyone smooth trading!
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