Recently, the incident of former US President Trump's bruised hand has continued to ferment, not only raising concerns about his health but also stirring waves in the cryptocurrency market. Coupled with potential selling pressure from Grayscale and policy uncertainties, Bitcoin (BTC) is facing multiple risk tests, and market panic is gradually rising.
1. Health doubts: The political and market chain reactions behind the bruises
On August 25, during a meeting with the South Korean president, Trump's bruised hand sparked renewed attention. Although the White House stated he suffers from 'chronic venous insufficiency' (with an incidence rate of over 40% in people over 70), the medical community raised doubts, suggesting the condition may be accompanied by congestive heart failure and other heart-kidney complications.
More importantly, The Economist revealed that Trump's team has long concealed health data. The market is concerned that if Trump suddenly faces a health crisis leading to a 'power vacuum', it would directly impact the policy support system he previously built for the crypto circle—after all, Trump is seen by many investors as a 'crypto-friendly' political figure, and his health status is highly tied to the policy direction in the crypto space.
2. Policy 'pillar' shaken: Trump's deep binding with the crypto circle
Trump's impact on the cryptocurrency market is not coincidental; there are multiple core connections, and changes in his health or political status could directly rewrite the policy direction of the crypto circle:
Policy leverage: Trump previously promoted 'the $9 trillion pension fund entering crypto assets' and planned to include 200,000 BTC (through confiscation) in the national strategic reserve, injecting a booster into the crypto circle;
Interest bundling: Public data shows that Trump's team has received over $37 million in political donations from the crypto industry (including leading institutions like Coinbase), and he has also been reported to hold 'Trump Coin' (TRUMP), with market rumors suggesting his family may control 80% of this coin (unconfirmed);
Power dependence: Vice presidential candidate Vance, as the 'first vice presidential candidate to hold BTC', is a key executor of Trump's crypto policy.
If Trump's health deteriorates or he exits the political stage, the agenda previously promoted by the Republican Party, such as 'pension funds entering crypto' and 'crypto regulation loosening', may come to a complete halt, and the crypto circle will lose significant policy support.
3. Triple risk 'resonance': Is Bitcoin facing a '60% off' bloodbath?
The crypto circle is currently facing a triple risk of 'health black swan + selling pressure + policy reversal', with market vulnerabilities becoming evident:
Grayscale's selling pressure countdown: Grayscale currently holds 620,000 BTC, accounting for 3.16% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin. If this holding continues to be sold off at a rate of 9,000 per day, the selling pressure could persist for 1-2 months, easily triggering a market spiral decline;
Leverage liquidation risk: Referencing historical similar events (market fluctuations triggered by changes in political figures' health), sudden news could trigger over $1.4 billion in liquidations in the contract market in a single day, further amplifying the decline;
Policy regression concerns: If Trump exits, the 'strong regulation' model of the Biden administration may return—previously, the US SEC had issued over $5 billion in fines to the crypto industry, and if regulations tighten, institutional funds may withdraw on a large scale.
Under multiple risks, analysts warn: if negative signals persist, Bitcoin could drop from its current price to $25,000, about a 40% discount from the current price (i.e., '60% off').
4. Crisis response guide: How can investors avoid risks and seize opportunities?
In the face of the current high-risk market environment, investors can refer to the following strategies to cope:
Short-term signal monitoring: Focus on the White House medical briefings and Vance's authority dynamics; if there are signals of Trump's health deterioration or policy shifts, consider shorting BTC in the short term;
Risk hedge operations: Buy BTC put options with a strike price below $40,000 while increasing holdings of compliant stablecoins like USDC to reduce market volatility impact;
Bottom layout opportunity: If BTC falls below $25,000, consider buying Beir's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) and stocks of mining companies like Hut 8 to seize oversold rebound opportunities.
Conclusion
"Trump's bruised hand may be the 'time bomb' for the crypto circle." When the health risks of political figures, large-scale BTC selling pressure, and policy uncertainties collide, the cryptocurrency market has entered a 'high-risk window period'—whether it will collapse or rebound dramatically may soon be revealed.
How do you view the current risks and opportunities in the crypto circle? Can Bitcoin hold its key support level? Feel free to share your views in the comments! With the crypto circle experiencing extreme volatility, staying vigilant and timing the market accurately is key to survival.#BTC☀ #ETH
